r/macro-events

With the upcoming CPI release, I'm putting the odds of Fed holding rates steady in June at about 65%. Core inflation showing persistent stickiness, despite headline softening. Even if we see a slight dip in core, the Fed's recent hawkish rhetoric suggests they'll want more than one data point to pivot. We're likely in a 'wait and see' for another meeting or two, unless CPI is a massive downside surprise.

Watching the March FOMC closely. The market is currently pricing in a terminal rate somewhere around 4.9% by May/June, but I'm leaning towards the Fed's dot plot, which will likely still show 5.25% or higher for 2023. Given recent CPI and employment data, the 'higher for longer' narrative has legs. I'd put the odds of the median dot for 2023 at 5.25% or above at roughly 65%. If this happens, expect some renewed dollar strength and a potential retest of recent lows in growth equities. Conversely, if they start signaling a pause sooner, $NZDCAD might see some immediate pressure, though fundamentals for NZD remain decent. The divergence between market pricing and Fed signaling is the key setup here.

The latest Fed comments, even after a mixed CPI, maintain a surprisingly hawkish tone. It makes me question how much upside runway is left for things like $UGAZ, currently at 10.82, if the rate environment tightens further than anticipated.

Watching the $CORN market today, it's been a bit of a rollercoaster, touching 17.76 earlier and now pulling back to 17.65. The question for me is whether we see a sustained push back above the 17.80 level by month-end, or if this current consolidation has more legs.

My take is that a retest and sustained break above 17.80, holding that level into the close of the month, seems to be about a 40% probability. The drivers for this would likely need to be a renewed narrative around supply chain disruptions, or perhaps a significant shift in weather forecasts for key growing regions. Absent strong fundamental catalysts, the current range-bound behavior around this 17.50-17.75 area could very well persist, with resistance proving sticky. We've seen a few probes higher rejected, suggesting the buying pressure isn't overwhelmingly aggressive just yet. It's not a market I'd bet heavily on either side of at this precise moment without further clarity.

The $NG reaction today to inventory was, shall we say, muted, closing at $5.83 after touching $5.705 earlier. Feels like the market is already looking past the near-term supply picture and more towards longer-range weather forecasts and export demand dynamics. I'm keeping an eye on whether this resistance around $6 holds, as a clear break could signal renewed bullish sentiment, but right now it feels like a lot of the juice is out of this move for the immediate term. My watchlist is heavy on producers for now, but considering some short-term puts if we can't find conviction above $5.90 soon.

Been watching $NG pretty closely today, especially with that dip earlier hitting $5.705 before rebounding. The sentiment feels pretty bearish right now, but there's an underlying tightness in the supply picture that keeps me from being outright negative. Looking at the charts and some of the broader energy macro, I'd put the odds of $NG hitting $6.00 by month-end at around 35-40%. We've got winter demand still to play out in some regions, and any unexpected colder snaps could easily provide the spark. However, the current momentum is clearly to the downside, and there aren't any immediate catalysts on the horizon that scream 'breakout.' It's a tricky one, could go either way with a strong conviction.

Watching $SAP today, up over 1.5% to 183.62, it's a decent move but still feels like Europe's tech sector is playing catch-up compared to the US. We've seen a lot of enthusiasm for AI, sure, but the underlying economic data from the Eurozone often feels like a drag on these companies.

My watchlist is heavily weighted towards US big tech for now, even with their already high valuations. Until we see clearer signs of sustained economic strength or a more aggressive push towards innovation funding in Europe, companies like SAP, while solid, might struggle to maintain the kind of growth multiples their American counterparts command.

The Fed's hawkish stance post a largely in-line CPI print suggests they're still more concerned about inflation stickiness than growth, which has me leaning towards trimming some of my emerging market exposure like $EWZ, despite its modest upside today. It just doesn't feel like the right environment to be aggressively long EM.

That $BRN jump to 1.03 today after Saudi comments about supply definitely has me rethinking my short-term thesis for a few names, especially with $US30 pushing 52485.03. I'm watching to see if this energy bump starts feeding into inflation concerns again and how the market prices that in over the next few sessions, particularly for sectors that might benefit or suffer from higher input costs.

Watching $USDSEK closely here. We've seen it push down to 9.5093 today, and the broader trend for the past few weeks seems pretty clear. Given the recent dovish comments filtering out of the Riksbank and the general USD weakness post-CPI last week, I'd put the odds of seeing 9.50 or lower by Friday's close at about 65-70%. We just need a bit more follow-through on that momentum. If we break that 9.50 psychological level, things could accelerate quickly.

Been watching the shifting sentiment around Fed rates, especially after the latest dot plot. While the market seems to be pricing in cuts sooner than the Fed's own projections, the recent CPI data, though a bit of a mixed bag, still highlights some stickiness. It's making me reconsider some of my more aggressive long plays that are heavily dependent on a swift dovish pivot. I'm keeping a closer eye on sectors that perform well in a 'higher for longer' rate environment, or at least those less sensitive to borrowing costs. For instance, tech names with strong balance sheets and consistent free cash flow, rather than speculative growth, are looking more attractive. The move in $ETHUSD today, while positive, feels like a short-term bounce within a broader wait-and-see. It's less about the daily fluctuations in something like $DKNG and more about the underlying current from the central banks.

I'm giving $EWZ about 65% odds to stay within the 35.50-37.50 range through month-end, assuming no major political surprises after the recent election noise and considering the existing range-bound action between 36.145 and 36.84.

The $IDR has taken a decent hit, currently down almost 4% at 28.07, hitting day lows around 29.14 before a slight rebound. This volatility, even with $PYUSD holding steady at 0.99962, suggests a reaction to local political news creating some capital outflow pressure or just broad uncertainty. It's on my radar for any ripple effects into regional FX or if it becomes a signal for broader emerging market sentiment.

The latest $US30 run, hitting over 52485 today, makes me wonder how much of the good news is already baked in, especially with whispers of a potentially more hawkish Fed stance later this year. I'm focusing my watchlist on sectors with strong Q2 earnings beats that also demonstrate pricing power, as these might be more resilient if we see any shifts in rate hike expectations. It's less about the current level and more about anticipating how macro sentiment could pivot on the next CPI read or employment figures, which could quickly reprice things.

Watching the $SPCX move today, down to 108.37, it's certainly got me thinking about the Fed's stance coming up. We've seen a pretty consistent hawkish tilt, but the market's been pricing in cuts for a while now. My gut feeling, looking at recent employment data and stubbornly sticky inflation reads, is that the Fed will likely maintain a 'higher for longer' narrative, even if they don't explicitly hike at the next meeting. I'd put the probability of them keeping rates unchanged, but with forward guidance leaning hawkish, at around 65-70%.

The alternative, a more dovish tone to support the economy, seems less probable right now given their dual mandate and the recent run of decent economic prints. A genuine shift towards dovishness, hinting at cuts sooner than expected, I'd peg at closer to 20-25%. The remaining 5-10% is for some unexpected curveball – maybe a surprisingly weak CPI print out of left field, or some geopolitical event that forces their hand. I'm not seeing any real signs of that right now though. It feels like we're in a holding pattern where the Fed needs more data before they can confidently signal a pivot, and the market is just itching for that signal.

Been watching $USDMXN with particular interest lately, especially with the Banxico meeting minutes due next week and the general sentiment around LatAm central banks. Currently, we're hovering around 17.32, which feels like a bit of a psychological line in the sand given the resilience we've seen on the MXN side.

My gut, backed by a quick mental scan of recent rhetoric and the persistent strength in the labor market data coming out of Mexico, suggests that Banxico is likely to maintain a relatively hawkish tone, or at least avoid any dovish surprises. They've shown a willingness to be independent from the Fed's pace. If we see those minutes confirm this stance, and especially if the Fed continues to talk up 'higher for longer' in a tempered way, I'd put the probability of $USDMXN closing out the month below 17.20 at roughly 60%. The alternative, a break above 17.40 and heading towards 17.50, feels less likely, maybe 30%, unless there's a significant external shock or a truly unexpected dovish pivot from Banxico. The remaining 10% is just sideways chop around here. It's a nuanced play, not just about rate differentials but also about capital flows and general market risk appetite which still seems to favor carry trades in this environment.

Watching $USLV today, down to 12.96, a decent dip from its daily high, probably on that persistent 'higher for longer' rate talk starting to make the rounds again after the latest Fed commentary. It's interesting how quickly sentiment pivots on these short-term moves, especially in the more volatile leveraged plays. For my part, I'm still keeping a close eye on the broader commodity space. If inflation pressures do prove stickier, as some are suggesting, then the current pullback could present an interesting entry point for a longer-term play on precious metals as a hedge. Just something to consider for the watchlist, not a call.

Watching the March FOMC very closely this week, particularly the updated dot plot. The market has largely priced in rate cuts starting around June, but the recent CPI and employment data have definitely muddied those waters. There's a growing divergence between market expectations and what the Fed might actually signal.

My take is that we'll likely see the median dot plot for 2024 shift slightly higher, perhaps from the prior 3 cuts to 2 cuts. I'd assign a 65% probability to this outcome. The Fed, in my view, is still very much data-dependent and the stickiness of inflation, even if moderating, coupled with a robust labor market, gives them little imperative to rush. A scenario where they maintain the 3 cuts but strongly reiterate a 'higher for longer' stance beyond 2024 for terminal rate is also possible, maybe 25% probability. This would still temper market enthusiasm for aggressive easing. A truly dovish surprise, signalling more than 3 cuts, feels like a long shot, perhaps 10%. The $US30 currently sits around 52485.03, and any hawkish lean could see it retrace towards the lower end of the recent range, while a dovish tilt might push it towards 53000 quite quickly. The market is very sensitive to any nuance here.

Those CPI figures came in a bit hotter than some expected, and I'm wondering if this shifts the narrative for the Fed's next meeting. Thinking this could keep pressure on bond yields, which might explain why I'm seeing some of my tech watchlist pull back a touch. Definitely keeping an eye on the Fed rhetoric this week to see if they lean into the "higher for longer" sentiment or try to smooth things over.

Watching the fed's narrative on rate cuts very closely. While the market's priced in a cut by June for a while, recent inflation prints (PCE, CPI) and a surprisingly resilient jobs market make that increasingly less probable. I'd put the odds of a cut in June at less than 30% now. We're more likely to see a hold through Q2, with any potential cut pushed into Q3, possibly September. The Fed seems genuinely committed to seeing more sustained evidence of inflation moving towards target before making any moves, even if it means some short-term economic friction. This could mean a longer 'higher for longer' stance than many initially anticipated, particularly if wage growth doesn't ease up.

Considering the latest CPI print, which, while not a disaster, didn't provide the clear disinflationary signal many were hoping for, I'm leaning towards the Fed's March dot plot showing a slightly more hawkish stance. I'd give it about a 60% probability that the median forecast for 2024 rate cuts shifts to two from the previously hinted three. The market seems to have front-run an aggressive easing cycle, and Powell might use the opportunity to re-anchor expectations more cautiously, especially with the labor market still resilient. A single basis point shift in $EURUSD would be a minor tremor, but if it translates to a more pronounced hawkish leaning for the year, we could see some recalibration.

ส่วนตัวมองว่า $DOGE น่าจะติดแนวต้านสำคัญแถวๆ 0.070-0.071 ไม่น่าจะทะลุได้ง่ายๆ ในช่วงปลายเดือนนี้ มีโอกาสราวๆ 60-70% ที่จะเห็นการเทรดอยู่ในกรอบ 0.068-0.070 เป็นหลัก เหตุผลหลักๆ คือปริมาณการซื้อขายที่ยังค่อนข้างเบาบางและไม่มี catalysts ใหม่ๆ ที่จะมาขับเคลื่อนราคาได้อย่างมีนัยสำคัญ ประกอบกับภาพรวมตลาดคริปโตที่ยังคงแกว่งตัวในกรอบกว้างๆ รอความชัดเจนจากปัจจัยมหภาคอย่างอัตราเงินเฟ้อและทิศทางดอกเบี้ยของ Fed การเก็งกำไรระยะสั้นในสินทรัพย์เสี่ยงสูงแบบนี้จึงค่อนข้างมีความผันผวนสูงและ upside ค่อนข้างจำกัดในตอนนี้

Been watching $USDSEK closely the past few days, especially with the Riksbank's recent dovish tilt. Today's movement up to 9.71321 feels like it's confirming some of that underlying weakness in SEK. With the general macro uncertainty still elevated and the dollar showing resilience, I'm leaning towards a continued grind higher. I'd put the odds of hitting 9.80 before the end of the month at about 60%. The economic data out of Sweden hasn't exactly been stellar, and that's likely to keep pressure on the Riksbank to maintain an accommodative stance.

Of course, any unexpected shift in global risk sentiment or a sudden hawkish surprise from the Riksbank could quickly reverse that, but for now, the path of least resistance seems to be north.

Bit of a rollercoaster day for $SPCX, finishing up +2.56% at 116.41. Good to see some recovery, though that intraday range of 107.01-118.13 certainly kept things interesting. Meanwhile, $NZDCAD barely budged, up 0.05% at 0.81566, making me question if I should've just traded paint drying instead. All eyes now on Powell's upcoming remarks; feeling like we're all just waiting for the next tremor from the Fed before we can truly get a read on market direction. My watchlist is pretty much a holding pattern until we get some clarity there.

Interesting to see how the market is absorbing the recent hawkish tone from various Fed officials. It's not just the 25bp expectation, but the talk about 'higher for longer' that seems to be gaining traction. Combine that with the notable pull-back in commodities today – $BRN down nearly 7% to $0.95 and $USLV seeing a similar dive, now at $12.89. Feels like the market is pricing in a significant demand slowdown, or at least a strong dollar headwind.

This makes me wonder about the carry trade dynamic going forward. If the dollar strengthens further on sustained rate differentials, we could see more pressure on risk assets, especially those sensitive to global demand. My watchlist is definitely skewed towards dollar strength plays, or at least assets that can weather a stronger dollar environment. Re-evaluating some of my long commodity exposures based on this shift in sentiment.

I'm looking at $USDCAD and honestly, it feels like we're treading water a bit after that recent run. Currently at 1.41212. I'm putting about a 60% probability that we see a retest of the 1.4050-1.4070 range by end of next week, especially if the Bank of Canada strikes a more dovish tone than expected in their upcoming statements. The market seems to be pricing in a bit too much hawkishness given the cooling inflation data and potential softening in domestic demand. If we get confirmation of that dovish pivot, I think the pair has room to give back some of the recent gains. Conversely, a hawkish surprise could easily push us towards 1.4150 and beyond, but I see that as the less likely scenario right now, maybe 40% odds.

Alright, so this morning's CPI numbers landed a little hotter than anticipated, throwing a wrench into the 'everything's perfectly fine' narrative some folks have been peddling. You watch the talking heads pivot faster than a speculative growth stock on a Fed hint. It's not exactly a disaster, mind you, but it definitely cools off the idea of aggressive rate cuts coming down the pike soon. This shifts my focus a bit from those higher-beta plays that thrive on cheap money. I'm taking a harder look at defensive sectors and commodities, especially with $MGC still showing that underlying strength at 269.44, barely registering the news. Meanwhile, $X at 54.84 is just doing its thing, and $MATIC seeing a 3.51% bump to 0.2826 almost feels like it's living in a different universe. It's a reminder that macro data can be a blunt instrument, but it's the music the central banks dance to, and we'd be foolish not to at least tap our feet along.

เห็นตัวเลข PMI แอฟริกาใต้เมื่อเช้านี้แล้วก็แอบกังวลเล็กน้อยนะครับ คือ PMI ภาคการผลิตเดือนพฤษภาคมออกมาต่ำกว่าคาดที่ 50.9 จากที่ตลาดมองไว้ 52.0 ตัวเลขที่ต่ำกว่า 50 มันบ่งชี้ถึงการหดตัว ซึ่งนี่ก็เป็นเดือนที่สองติดต่อกันแล้วที่ออกมาไม่ค่อยดีนัก แถมยังอยู่ในช่วงที่ $USDZAR กำลังแกว่งตัวในกรอบ 16.70-16.85 ได้สักพักใหญ่ๆ

มองไปข้างหน้า ถ้ายังเห็นข้อมูลเศรษฐกิจที่ไม่ค่อยสดใสจากแอฟริกาใต้ต่อเนื่อง ก็อาจจะเป็นแรงกดดันให้ RAND อ่อนค่าลงได้อีก แม้ว่าช่วงนี้ดอลลาร์เองก็ไม่ได้แข็งแกร่งเป็นพิเศษก็ตาม ผมเลยจะเพิ่ม $USDZAR เข้าไปใน watchlist แบบใกล้ชิดมากขึ้นอีกหน่อย อาจจะเห็นโอกาสในการขยับตัวขึ้นของคู่เงินนี้ได้อีก หากโมเมนตัมเศรษฐกิจยังไม่ฟื้นตัว ผมไม่ได้มองว่าจะหลุดแนวรับสำคัญๆ ทันที แต่ต้องระวัง Upside Risk เอาไว้บ้าง

Considering the current $USDMXN momentum and broader EM currency weakness, I'd put the odds of seeing 17.50 before the end of the month at around 65%, especially if we get any further hawkish Fed commentary.

Watching $CADJPY with some interest heading into the latter half of the month. We’re currently hovering around 115.977, but I'm leaning towards a test of 116.50 before month-end, placing those odds at about 65%. The primary driver for this outlook is the persistent strength in crude, coupled with the BoC's recent hawkish stance being less-than-fully-priced in, especially relative to the BoJ's extremely dovish posture. While JPY intervention fears always loom, the market seems to have digested a fair amount of yen weakness already without significant pushback. A decisive break above today's high of 116.248 could provide the catalyst needed to push us towards that 116.50 level. The downside risk remains a broader risk-off move or an unexpected shift in commodity sentiment, but absent those, the path of least resistance still seems to be higher.