USDSEK - Nearing Resistance, but ECB Dovishness Could Extend

Looking at $USDSEK currently at 9.67418, we've seen some pull-back from earlier highs. However, the path of least resistance still feels upward, at least for the short-to-medium term. The ECB's recent dovish tilt, despite attempts to sound hawkish, is the primary driver here, weakening the Euro and, by extension, other European currencies against a still-relatively strong dollar.

I'd put the probability of USDSEK testing the 9.75-9.80 range before month-end at about 65%. While we might see some intraday swings, the underlying macro divergence between the US and Eurozone (with Sweden often caught in the crossfire) suggests continued upward pressure. A break above 9.80 could even see us push towards 10.00, though that's a lower probability scenario at present, maybe 30% by month-end, requiring a further dovish surprise from the ECB or some unexpected weakness in Swedish data. Just my two cents, not advice.