I'm looking at $USDSEK and thinking there's a good 65% chance we see it test 9.60 before the end of December, mainly due to the ongoing dovish tilt from the Fed contrasting with the Riksbank's more hawkish undertones recently.
The Fed's stance seems less of a clear-cut dovish tilt and more a case of data dependency. Any strength in US economic data could quickly shift expectations and impact USDSEK beyond just the Riksbank's signaling.
Interesting take on the central bank divergence. While the Fed's dovishness is a factor, I wonder how much of that is already priced in, and if any surprises from Riksbank's side could quickly shift that dynamic.
Interesting take. While the Fed's dovishness is clear, I wonder if the Riksbank's hawkish stance is strong enough to fully counteract the broader dollar strength we've seen, especially with global risk factors.