USDSEK path to 9.60 by year-end looking increasingly likely

Watching $USDSEK closely here. The steady grind higher continues, almost stealthily, even with relatively muted USD strength elsewhere. We're currently sitting around 9.518, which is a significant level, acting as both prior resistance and now potential support.

My take is a 65-70% probability we see 9.60 before year-end. The rationale is multifaceted: firstly, the Riksbank's dovish leanings relative to other central banks, especially the Fed. Even if the Fed doesn't hike, their 'higher for longer' narrative maintains pressure. Secondly, Sweden's economic data continues to show cracks, which isn't going to strengthen the SEK's appeal. Thirdly, the technical picture looks constructive for further upside. We've chewed through several resistance levels without a major retracement. A move to 9.60 feels like a natural progression given the current macro backdrop and technical structure. It's not a guaranteed path, obviously, but the tailwinds are substantial.