r/macro-events

Starting to get a feel for how the market is positioning ahead of next week's CPI print and the FOMC meeting. I'm leaning towards the idea that we'll see core CPI come in slightly hotter than expected, maybe 0.4% MoM, largely due to lingering services inflation. If that happens, the market is probably underestimating the Fed's willingness to keep their foot on the brake. I'd put the odds of a more hawkish tone from Powell — perhaps signaling a higher 'for longer' stance or even hinting at the potential for one more hike later in the year — at around 60%. This could put some pressure on risk assets, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a retest of recent lows for broader indices. On the flip side, if CPI surprises to the downside, say 0.2% MoM core, then the relief rally could be quite strong, pushing things like $RBLX back towards the top end of its recent range. But my base case right now is that the path of least resistance for the Fed remains cautious, meaning any signs of inflation persistence will be met with a firm hand.

Been watching $USLV closely these past few days, especially with the inflation chatter picking up. It closed today at 13.3698, after a decent bounce. The metals complex, silver in particular, often gets a nice tailwind when real rates dip, or when the market starts pricing in a more dovish Fed.

My take for a month-end close above $14.00 on USLV is probably around 60/40 right now, leaning towards it happening. Why? We've got more inflation data coming out, and while the Fed is sticking to their "higher for longer" script, any sign of persistent disinflationary pressures – or even just a slight weakening in jobs numbers – could shift that narrative quickly. The market's already showing some sensitivity to these headlines, and if we get a few more data points suggesting the economy isn't quite as robust as some hope, then the rate cut narrative might start to gain some serious traction. That's good for silver and by extension, $USLV. Conversely, a hotter than expected CPI or a hawkish Fed speak could easily send it back to retest the 13.00 level. Just my two cents, not advice, but that's how I'm framing the probabilistic outcome.

Been watching the $CADJPY pretty closely today, trading around 116.2542. It's been hovering in that 116.089–116.464 range, which honestly, isn't telling us much directionally short-term. What really piques my interest is the broader macro picture influencing the CAD side of that pair. The Bank of Canada has been... well, a bit of a moving target lately, and the market seems to be pricing in some uncertainty around their next move. Are they truly done with hikes, or is there still an outside chance if inflation data doesn't cooperate?

It feels like the next few CPI prints and employment figures out of Canada are going to be critical. If we see any signs of stickiness, especially on core inflation, it could put some upward pressure back on the CAD, even if the general sentiment is leaning towards rate cuts eventually. For now, I'm keeping it on the watchlist, looking for a clearer signal from the BOC's rhetoric or some stronger economic data. Not jumping in yet, but the potential for a decent move is there once we get more clarity on the policy front.

Been watching the oil market a bit more closely these past few days. That little bump we saw, especially with $NG hovering around 5.93, has me considering the broader inflationary picture again. It's not a massive move, but it's enough to keep the pressure on at a time when the Fed is trying to navigate a soft landing.

My primary concern isn't just the direct cost impact, but how it might feed into other commodities and ultimately influence central bank rhetoric. If energy costs start to firm up more persistently, it makes the job of bringing down inflation that much harder. This just reinforces my more cautious stance on long-duration assets for now. I'm keeping a very close eye on the upcoming CPI print – if energy components surprise to the upside, we could see some more hawkish tones creep back into the narrative. Also curious how this might trickle into industrial metals down the line. What are others thinking about this latest energy move?

I'm putting the odds at roughly 60/40 that the Fed's March dot plot will signal only two rate cuts for 2024, down from the three we saw in December. The recent CPI prints, particularly the core, have just been too sticky to ignore, and the labor market, while cooling, isn't collapsing. Powell will likely keep the optionality open in his commentary, but the internal sentiment seems to be shifting towards a more cautious, data-dependent stance, making a higher-for-longer outcome more probable. Expect some hawkish noise from a few regional presidents who have been vocally concerned about inflation persistence.

The $NG pop today, touching 6.085 at one point, definitely caught my eye. We've been bouncing around that 5.80-6.00 range for a bit now, and while it's still relatively contained, any move above this feels like it needs a stronger catalyst than what we've had. With the EIA report coming up next week, I'm certainly watching for inventory draws. If we get a significant surprise, particularly with any lingering colder weather forecasts, that could provide the spark needed to push past resistance. My watchlist is heavily weighted towards energy right now, so keeping a close eye on natural gas as a potential leader or laggard depending on how those fundamentals shake out. Not chasing this particular move, but it's putting $NG firmly on my radar for potential plays post-EIA.

The latest CPI numbers came in a bit hotter than expected, and while the Fed is still talking data-dependent, the market is pricing in a slightly longer hold on rates. I'm keeping a close eye on $USDMXN at 17.4925; the current range looks like it could break higher if DXY momentum picks up. Still looking for an entry on a pullback, but it's not materializing yet. Also noting $USDSEK at 9.7117, feels a bit soft despite the overall dollar strength. Just my two cents.

Alright folks, another week, another data point to obsess over. With PCE Core coming up, I've been kicking around the probabilities for what we might see and, more importantly, what it means for the market's current love affair with rate cuts. The consensus seems to be penciling in a decent deceleration, but I'm not entirely convinced we're out of the woods.

My gut, and a quick glance at some of the stickier components we've seen lately, suggests there's a higher chance than the market's pricing in for PCE Core to come in a little hotter than anticipated – let's say, north of 0.3% MoM. I'd put that probability at around 40-45%. Why? Well, shelter inflation, while showing signs of cooling, still has a lagged effect, and some service sectors are proving remarkably resilient. If it does print hotter, prepare for the market to throw a mini-tantrum, likely pulling back some of those aggressive rate-cut bets for mid-year. If it aligns with or dips below consensus, it'll be business as usual, perhaps a slight relief rally, but nothing dramatic. The Fed's certainly watching this one closely, as are we all, hoping for a smooth ride rather than another inflationary pothole.

Noticed $KC is down 2.27% today, trading around 9.47. It's interesting to see commodities like coffee reacting ahead of the upcoming CPI print. I'm keeping an eye on broader consumer discretionary spending data; if people are pulling back on everyday luxuries, it could signal a bigger shift that impacts a lot more than just coffee futures.

Watching $USDMXN closely here. We've been hovering around the 17.48 mark today, with a decent range from 17.43 to 17.52. The current bid at 17.48123 is interesting given the broader market sentiment.

My take is that we've got a decent shot at seeing 17.60 by the close of Friday's session. I'd put the probability around 60%. Why? We're seeing some subtle shifts in market risk appetite globally, and while the day's movement on $USDMXN hasn't been dramatic (+0.02%), the undercurrents suggest a slight move back into USD strength against some EM currencies. The lack of a strong catalyst today means traders might be positioning for weekend news or simply unwinding some shorter-term positions that have kept it contained. A slight pick-up in oil prices could offer some counter-pressure, but it feels like the USD bid is gaining some quiet momentum. It's not a screaming signal, but a gentle nudge towards that higher level if the current range breaks upwards convincingly in the next 24-48 hours. Not advice, just my odds.

I'm leaning towards the Fed holding rates steady through Q3, but the market's pricing in more cuts than I think are justified. If we see $USDZAR hovering around 16.82 by month-end, I'd give it 60/40 odds we're looking at a stronger dollar into year-end, especially if inflation stays sticky.

Seeing $USDSEK testing the upper end of its daily range at 9.7598 today. Given the broader hawkish sentiment building up, I'd put the odds at about 60% we see a clean break above 9.76 by end of week, likely heading towards 9.80 if the momentum holds.

I'm looking at $USDCAD and the Bank of Canada's next rate decision. With $USDCAD trading around 1.40883, near the top of its daily range, the market seems to be pricing in some further USD strength, or CAD weakness, which implies a less aggressive BOC.

My take is that the probability of the BOC hiking rates in June is significantly underestimated right now. We've seen decent employment figures recently, and while inflation has cooled, it's still sticky in areas. The market seems too comfortable with the pause narrative. I'd put the odds of a 25bps hike in June at around 40-45%. My reasoning is that the BOC, like other central banks, is likely to err on the side of caution with inflation, even if it means some short-term pain for the economy. They won't want to get caught behind the curve again. If they do hike, we'd see a pretty swift move lower in $USDCAD, likely testing the 1.39 handle shortly after the announcement. If they hold, this level around 1.41 will probably hold as support.

The latest Fed commentary, while still hawkish, seems to be hinting at a slightly more nuanced view on inflation, acknowledging some stickiness but not outright panic. I'm watching $SLV at 52.06 and $MGC at 269.77; while they're down today, I'm curious if this subtle shift in tone might start to offer some support, or if the market needs more definitive signals before rotating back into these inflation hedges.

The latest Fed commentary, still leaning hawkish despite some softening data, suggests rates are likely to stay elevated for longer than some had hoped. This just reinforces my focus on companies with strong balance sheets and consistent free cash flow, rather than highly leveraged growth plays, and I'm watching how this continues to pressure $SAP after its recent dip to 145.97, along with keeping an eye on precious metals like $SLV, currently at 52.13, for any sustained breakouts or breakdowns based on real rate shifts.

It's been interesting to watch $MGC (Micro Gold futures) hover around the 273-274 mark lately. We saw a decent run up to 274.73 earlier today, but it just hasn't been able to sustain any meaningful move higher. This consolidation period, post-FED meeting minutes and with CPI data on the horizon, feels like the market is coiling, waiting for the next catalyst. My read is that there's about a 60% chance we see a sustained push above 275 by month-end, assuming the upcoming economic data doesn't surprise too negatively.

The reasoning for this leans on a few factors. Firstly, the dollar strength, while still present, seems to be losing some momentum against some crosses, for example, $USDTHB moving up to 33.84 today, but globally it's more mixed. If we see any weakening in the dollar or a hint of 'less hawkish' sentiment from future Fed speak, gold could easily break out. Secondly, geopolitical risks, while not front-page every day, are still simmering beneath the surface, providing a baseline demand for safe-haven assets. Conversely, a hotter-than-expected CPI could certainly push us back down, potentially testing the 270 level, but I think the probability of a decisive move below that in the near term is lower, perhaps 30%. The key will be how bond yields react to the next round of data; a drop there would almost certainly be gold's cue.

Watching $BRN jump to 1.0799 today, a solid +4.84%, after trading from 1.04, it's hard not to notice the $USDCAD action. While Brent is making a strong move, USDCAD is holding 1.40982, up +0.08%, having touched 1.40997. Typically, stronger oil supports CAD, but the current modest CAD weakness against the dollar suggests either the market is calling this oil move temporary, or broader dollar strength is just overwhelming the commodity impulse. I'm keeping a close eye on if this divergence persists, as it could signal a more fundamental shift for the CAD pairs, even with oil strength. Not necessarily a short on CAD yet, but definitely worth flagging for potential shifts in the correlation.

Watching $CADJPY at 115.907 today; seems like the CAD isn't getting much of a lift from yesterday's better-than-expected Canadian jobs numbers, which is interesting given how sensitive it usually is. Makes me wonder if the market is just shrugging it off, looking past the short-term data to broader BoC sentiment, or if other crosscurrents are at play like general JPY weakness.

Alright, so CPI drops tomorrow and I'm already feeling that familiar pre-announcement jitters. With all the talk of sticky inflation and the Fed being 'data dependent,' this one feels like it could really swing things. You see $SLV up nearly 3.5% today at 54.945, hitting 55.07 at one point, and $MGC barely budging at 274.185. It's almost like the market's saying, 'Hey, something's cooking, but we're not quite sure if it's a feast or a famine.' I'm leaning towards the cautious side myself, watching how the market digests the numbers before making any aggressive moves. Anyone else just planning to sit on their hands tomorrow and let the dust settle before jumping in?

The latest dot plot update from the Fed has me thinking about how much of this hawkish tilt is already priced in. We've seen some of the tech giants show incredible resilience despite higher rate expectations. $NFLX is up +1.58% today at 68.67, even after yesterday's broader market jitters, though it did trade between 66.725 and 68.741 today. Meanwhile, $GOOG is down -1.47% at 346.19, trading from 346.01 to 350.68. This divergence among big tech suggests a selective resilience.

My watchlist is still skewed towards companies with strong free cash flow and a clear path to profitability, even in a higher-rate environment. The market seems to be rewarding actual earnings power over pure growth narratives now. I'm less concerned about the absolute level of rates and more about the trajectory and what that implies for forward guidance from companies, particularly regarding their capex plans and ability to service debt. The next CPI print will be key for confirming whether the Fed's stance will harden further.

Seeing $BRN push up to 1.03 today after the Saudi production cuts were confirmed, it's making me reconsider some of the energy names I had on the back burner. This continued supply side pressure could have a longer tail than folks are pricing in.

The CPI numbers came in a bit hotter than expected, and I'm curious to see how $GLD reacts, currently at $367.6, especially with the dollar still showing some strength against emerging market currencies like $USDTRY at 47.17423. It'll be interesting to see if this prompts any re-evaluation of Fed rate hike probabilities, which could either support or pressure gold from here.

Hey everyone,

Been keeping a close eye on the coffee market, specifically $KC, and the recent movements have been interesting. We're currently sitting around 10.05, and I'm starting to think about the potential for a retest of the upper end of its recent range by month-end, maybe even pushing toward the 10.20-10.25 area. The daily high today at 10.23 shows that resistance is there, but the underlying supply concerns, especially with reports from South America about potential disruptions, could provide some upward momentum.

My reasoning here is pretty straightforward: demand seems to be holding up, and if we get any further confirmation of harvest issues or even just a slight delay in supply reaching market, that could easily nudge prices higher. I'd put the probability of $KC touching or briefly exceeding 10.20 by the end of next week at around 60%. It's not a certainty, of course; a strong harvest report or a sudden weakening of demand could easily pull it back towards the 9.90 support. But given the current climate, it feels more likely to lean towards the upside within that range. Curious to hear if anyone else is watching $KC and what your take is.

Reading into the Fed's dot plot today, the more hawkish tilt isn't entirely unexpected given the recent CPI prints, but the market's initial reaction has been telling. Bond yields are spiking a bit, and that's naturally putting pressure on growth names. My tech watchlist, specifically some of the higher-multiple software plays, is taking a hit. I'm not ready to dump everything, but I am reconsidering entry points and maybe trimming a few positions that were looking a bit stretched. It’s a good reminder that even with solid earnings, macro headwinds can wipe out gains in a hurry. Keeping a close eye on jobless claims next week for any further clues on the labor market's strength.

Alright folks, casting an eye on $USDTHB here, which is sitting around 33.64 today, bouncing between 33.57 and 33.7. The chatter pre-election was all about a potential rate cut from the BOT, or at least the imminence of one. But post-election? Silence, mostly. The new government seems to have other priorities, and frankly, the inflation picture isn't screaming for a cut, even if growth could use a nudge.

So, my probabilistic take: I'm putting the odds of a BOT rate cut before Q1 2024 at a mere 25%. My reasoning is simple: political capital. The new administration will want to make its mark with fiscal measures first, and the BOT, ever the cautious independent, won't rush to ease unless the economic data undeniably demands it. With tourism bouncing back nicely, and external demand holding up better than some feared, I just don't see the urgency. We could see $USDTHB grind higher towards 34.00, perhaps even testing 34.20 by year-end, if the rate cut narrative remains muted. Conversely, if some surprise macro shock hits, all bets are off, but for now, the path of least resistance for the pair seems to be north, or at least a firm sideways.

Watching the action in $KC today – that +7.60% jump to 10.265 is certainly turning heads. You'd think with all the talk about demand destruction and a general global slowdown, we'd see more subdued moves in commodities. But then again, it's never that simple, is it? It makes me wonder if the market is quietly starting to price in a more persistent inflation story than the Fed (or many economists) are willing to publicly admit. This kind of spike, even in a single commodity, can create ripple effects in other agricultural inputs and eventually, consumer prices. For my watchlist, it's a prompt to reassess the short-duration bond segment and perhaps look harder at some of the inflation-protected instruments I'd started to deem less urgent. Maybe it's time to dust off the energy sector ETFs again too. Just when you think you've got a handle on the narrative, something like this reminds you the market always has a few curveballs left.

My read on the Fed's upcoming dot plot for March is a strong likelihood (>70%) of at least one more rate hike being signaled for 2024, pushing the median further past current market pricing. The CPI data and general labor market resilience just don't support a pivot yet, despite some of the recent noise. I wouldn't be surprised to see $USDZAR drift higher on that news.

The latest CPI print came in a bit hotter than some were expecting, particularly on the services side, which immediately got me thinking about the Fed's rhetoric moving forward. It feels like the market's been trying to price in an earlier rate cut this year, but with inflation showing this kind of stickiness, Chair Powell might be forced to maintain a more hawkish tone at the next meeting, or at least push back on the aggressive cutting expectations.

I'm curious how others are viewing this in terms of sector rotation or bond positioning. For my part, I'm watching how the longer end of the curve reacts next week and re-evaluating some of the more rate-sensitive names on my watchlist. Might be time to dial back on some of the growth plays if higher for longer becomes the firm narrative again, even if it's just for another quarter.

Watching $USDTHB lately, it's been pretty range-bound around the 33.5 to 33.7 area today, currently at 33.6. We saw a brief dip yesterday but it's snapped back. The Bank of Thailand has been consistent in their rhetoric, emphasizing stability, and with the local economic picture still somewhat uneven, I'm not seeing a strong catalyst for a significant breach of either side of this range in the immediate term.

Looking out to month-end, my sense is we'll continue to see it oscillate within a slightly wider band, perhaps 33.4 to 33.85. I'd give it about a 60% probability of staying within that range by the close of the month. A break below 33.4 would likely require some concrete signs of renewed domestic growth or a material shift in US dollar sentiment, neither of which seems immediately apparent. Conversely, a push above 33.85 would probably need a noticeable change in global risk appetite, perhaps a stronger dollar across the board, or an unexpected dovish pivot from the BoT, which is also a low probability scenario right now. It feels like a market waiting for more substantial economic data points.

The latest CPI numbers showed some stickiness, which wasn't entirely unexpected given the recent energy prices, but it certainly puts a spotlight on the upcoming PCE. That's really the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, and I'm keen to see if it starts reflecting any real softening that might give the FOMC some breathing room later in the year. If we get another higher-than-expected print, it could easily push back any rate cut expectations further.

From a positioning standpoint, I'm keeping a very close eye on the bond market reaction, especially the shorter end of the curve. Equities could remain range-bound or even see some pressure if the 'higher for longer' narrative gains more traction. For cryptos, a persistent hawkish stance from the Fed doesn't generally provide a tailwind, though $ADA seems to be holding its own around $0.1661 despite broader market jitters. I'm not making any significant moves before that PCE print, mostly just refining my watchlist for potential plays once the dust settles.