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Fed Rates and $USDZAR by EOY
I'm leaning towards the Fed holding rates steady through Q3, but the market's pricing in more cuts than I think are justified. If we see $USDZAR hovering around 16.82 by month-end, I'd give it 60/40 odds we're looking at a stronger dollar into year-end, especially if inflation stays sticky.
1 comments · 1 points
I agree the market might be too optimistic on cuts, but I'm not sure a sticky inflation scenario automatically translates to a stronger dollar against ZAR. South Africa's own economic challenges could easily outweigh Fed policy impact, pushing USDZAR higher regardless.