Thoughts on ZAR movement by month-end

Been watching $USDZAR with interest lately. With the current spot at 16.3788, it's held up fairly well against some broader USD strength. We saw a decent dip today from 16.53114 to 16.3659 at its low, which suggests some selling pressure on the pair. I'm leaning towards a sustained push below the 16.30 level by month-end, maybe a 60% probability. The reasoning is largely macro – if we see any softness in US inflation prints or hints of a less aggressive Fed from upcoming data, that could really take some steam out of the USD side. Coupled with decent commodity prices, the ZAR could find some legs. Not seeing a strong reason for it to break back above 16.60 without a significant global risk-off event.

Of course, local political headlines are always a wildcard, but from a purely technical and macro flow perspective, a grind lower seems more probable than a bounce from here. Curious to hear what others are thinking.