Thoughts on Fed's next move and potential AUDNZD impact

I'm leaning towards the Fed holding rates steady at the next meeting, giving them more time to assess the lagged effects of prior hikes and incoming data. I'd put the probability of a hold around 70%, with a 30% chance of a modest 25bps hike if CPI proves stickier than anticipated; this could see $AUDNZD test below 1.2180 by month-end, though I don't see a clear break yet given recent range-bound activity.