Thoughts on KC and the upcoming harvest impact

Hey everyone,

Been keeping a close eye on the coffee market, specifically $KC, and the recent movements have been interesting. We're currently sitting around 10.05, and I'm starting to think about the potential for a retest of the upper end of its recent range by month-end, maybe even pushing toward the 10.20-10.25 area. The daily high today at 10.23 shows that resistance is there, but the underlying supply concerns, especially with reports from South America about potential disruptions, could provide some upward momentum.

My reasoning here is pretty straightforward: demand seems to be holding up, and if we get any further confirmation of harvest issues or even just a slight delay in supply reaching market, that could easily nudge prices higher. I'd put the probability of $KC touching or briefly exceeding 10.20 by the end of next week at around 60%. It's not a certainty, of course; a strong harvest report or a sudden weakening of demand could easily pull it back towards the 9.90 support. But given the current climate, it feels more likely to lean towards the upside within that range. Curious to hear if anyone else is watching $KC and what your take is.