r/prediction-markets

Looking at $AUDUSD, the recent pullback from 0.6913 to its current 0.68979 feels more like short-term profit-taking rather than a significant shift in sentiment. However, the 0.6850 level has shown to be a reasonable support area in the past, and with some of the ongoing global risk aversion narratives, a retest isn't out of the question. I'd put the probability of us seeing 0.6850 by the close of next week somewhere around 40%. It's not a strong conviction play, but the odds feel decent given the current technical structure and broader macro winds.

Watching $HSI closely here after today's dip. It closed at 23076.91, coming off a day that saw it touch 22978.59. The bounce from that intra-day low, even slight, is interesting. The overarching sentiment on China exposure remains murky, a factor that's been driving the choppiness. I'd put the probability of HSI staying above 23,000 by the close of the month at about 60%. The reasoning isn't purely technical; it's more about the market's current absorption capacity for negative news and the ongoing, albeit quiet, support from state-linked funds that tends to emerge around psychological levels during periods of broader uncertainty. There's enough capital still on the sidelines looking for entries if the selling pressure eases even marginally, which could provide that floor. Any significant escalation on the regulatory front or further property sector concerns, however, would obviously alter this outlook dramatically.

Looking at the intra-day swings on $QQQ, we saw a pretty quick rebound from the 704.45 low today. I'm putting the odds at about 60% we see a retest of the 700-705 zone by Friday, given the current macro picture and how quickly things can reverse. Thoughts?

Looking at $BAX, with its current momentum at 20.815 and a daily high of 20.99, I'd put the probability of it closing above 21 by month-end at around 65%. The buying pressure seems consistent, but we're approaching some overhead resistance that might slow it down slightly.

Hey everyone, been looking at $AVAX and its recent action. Currently sitting around $6.34, with a daily low of $5.99 today. The whole crypto market feels a bit wobbly, but $AVAX has some interesting technical levels.

I'm looking to predict if $AVAX will trade below $5.50 at any point during October. My rough odds are about 60% for it to dip below that level. My reasoning comes from a few places: firstly, the general market sentiment in crypto isn't exactly bullish, and a lot of alts tend to get dragged down disproportionately during broader downturns. Secondly, if we see another retest of the lower bound of its current range, a break below $5.99 could easily accelerate toward $5.50. There's not a lot of strong support visible on longer timeframes until we hit that area, which makes it a magnet if selling pressure picks up. On the flip side, I'd put about a 40% chance it holds above $5.50, especially if $BTC finds its footing or we get some unexpected positive news out of the Avalanche ecosystem. What are your thoughts? Any strong arguments for it holding firm, or even pushing higher this month?

I'd put the odds of $N225 touching 70,000 again before Friday at around 60%, given its daily range yesterday and the fact it hit 70218.71 earlier today; seems like an attractive nuisance for the bulls to retest before week's end. This market seems to enjoy revisiting its recent high-water marks, if only to remind us who's boss.

Watching $AUDJPY closely. It's been range-bound for a bit, currently at 111.526, after hitting 111.673 today. Given the recent strength in commodities and the general risk-on sentiment, I'd put the probability of it clearing 112 by month-end at around 65%. The daily range has been pretty consistent; a sustained break above 111.70 could indicate further upside momentum. We haven't seen a significant catalyst for a sharp reversal yet, so a grind higher seems plausible. If the $BBL decline continues, though, that could be a headwind for AUD.

Watching $CLF today, it's flirting with that $10.50 level. Given the -5.55% daily move already, it feels like the market is really trying to decide if it wants to stay in double digits. My gut says we've got about a 65% chance of closing below $10.50 today. The momentum is clearly to the downside, and sellers often like to push through those psychological lines at the end of the day just to make a point. It's not a conviction play, more of an observation of market psychology in real-time.

Considering the recent dip in Cleveland-Cliffs ($CLF) to $10.535, a rebound above $11.00 by month-end seems plausible. The current -5.64% move appears to be an overcorrection, given broader sector performance and steel demand projections. I'd put the probability of it hitting $11.00 or higher by June 30th at roughly 65%. The stock has shown resilience in similar pullbacks this quarter, often recovering ground swiftly. Supply chain realignments and infrastructure spending continue to underpin steel fundamentals, and I anticipate these factors will provide a floor for any sustained downturn, leading to a bounce back.

จากการพิจารณาข้อมูลเศรษฐกิจล่าสุด โดยเฉพาะตัวเลขเงินเฟ้อและตลาดแรงงานที่ยังคงแข็งแกร่ง ผมมองว่ามีความเป็นไปได้สูงที่ Fed จะคงอัตราดอกเบี้ยในระดับปัจจุบันไปจนถึงสิ้นปี 2567 โอกาสที่ว่านี้ประมาณ 60-65% แม้จะมีแรงกดดันให้ลดดอกเบี้ยเพื่อกระตุ้นเศรษฐกิจ แต่การที่ตลาด $NDX ยังยืนอยู่ได้ดีที่ราว 29126.62 ก็บ่งชี้ว่าภาคส่วนเทคโนโลยียังมีความยืดหยุ่น การจะเห็นการปรับลดดอกเบี้ยอย่างมีนัยสำคัญอาจต้องรอให้ข้อมูลเศรษฐกิจชะลอตัวลงกว่านี้ หรือมีปัจจัยภายนอกที่ส่งผลกระทบอย่างรุนแรง

Considering the recent price action in $CRM, currently trading around 153.785, I've been mulling over the probability of it retesting the 150 level before the year concludes. While the broader market sentiment has been somewhat resilient, Salesforce has its own set of unique headwinds and tailwinds. I'd place the odds of seeing a brief dip to 150 or lower at about 35-40%. This isn't a strong conviction, but more of a reflection of potential profit-taking in the absence of significant positive catalysts between now and December 31st, or a slight market pullback that takes some of the air out of recent gains.

Given $BTC's current consolidation around $64268.87, what are the community's thoughts on its trajectory into Q4 2024? Specific contracts on platforms like Kalshi for 'BTC above $80k by Dec 31' are trading around 30%. Does anyone see catalysts beyond ETF inflows that could drive it significantly higher?

Watching the markets for the VP nominee for the presumptive Republican candidate. It's still early, but the implied probabilities on PredictIt are starting to narrow down. Seems like a few names are consistently trading higher. Anyone have a strong thesis on a dark horse candidate that might be undervalued currently?

Several early indicators point to a potential deceleration in Q2 GDP growth. ISM data, jobless claims, and retail sales figures all seem to be trending slightly weaker than Q1. I'm seeing the implied probability of Q2 GDP falling below 1.5% annualized currently at 40% on some smaller markets. Worth monitoring.

The prediction market for 'no major military conflict in the Taiwan Strait by [specific date]' has seen its probability drop from 85% to 78% over the past month. While general geopolitical tensions are cited, what are the specific granular data points or intelligence that market participants are likely reacting to? Or is this just increased uncertainty priced in?

มีใครติดตามตลาดหุ้นไทยไหมครับ? ตอนนี้ตลาดคาดการณ์ว่า SET Index จะปิดปี 2024 สูงกว่า 1550 จุด ด้วยความน่าจะเป็นเท่าไรครับ? ผมเห็นบาง platform ให้แค่ 45% เอง

The upcoming CPI release next Tuesday is crucial. Current market consensus for June's FOMC meeting is largely priced for a pause, but a significant upside surprise in core CPI could quickly shift those probabilities. I'm looking at Polymarket and Manifold; implied probabilities for a 25bps hike currently sit around 15%. What are others seeing in terms of data points that could push this higher or lower pre-release?

The slight dip in $SPX today (-0.47%) seems to be having a minor, but measurable, effect on market sentiment contracts across various sectors. Nothing major yet, but it's a good reminder how interconnected these markets are.

With $SPX down slightly (-0.47%) today, I'm looking at prediction markets for next week's CPI release. The probability of an 'in-line' or 'higher than expected' CPI print seems to have gained traction, potentially pricing in some pre-emptive caution. Are others seeing similar shifts? How much weight are you giving to the current $SPX movement as an indicator for this specific market?

The recent rhetoric regarding the Taiwan Strait has led to a noticeable uptick in 'conflict' related contracts on various platforms. While the baseline probability of outright invasion remains low, the implied probability of 'significant military exercise' or 'blockade' seems to be creeping up. How are folks adjusting their geopolitical models for this kind of low-probability, high-impact event?

Noticed a slight dip in open interest on BTC price target markets today, despite $BTC being up slightly (+0.26%). Does anyone else observe that sharp intraday swings, even if ending flat or positive, tend to decrease overall participant confidence in these specific markets? It's not about the direction, but the path dependency making probability assignment harder. Curious about others' experiences.

Considering the increasing frequency and sophistication of cyber attacks, I'm curious about the community's outlook on the probability of a major incident (e.g., significant data breach, prolonged operational shutdown) impacting a Fortune 500 company in H2 2024. Markets for this are often difficult to price due to the 'unknown unknown' nature.

สังเกตเห็นว่าตลาดคาดการณ์สำหรับผลการเลือกตั้งรัฐสภายุโรป กำลังเริ่มมีการขยับตัวที่น่าสนใจ โดยเฉพาะในเรื่องของสัดส่วนคะแนนเสียงของพรรคขวาจัด มีใครมีมุมมองหรือข้อมูลเชิงลึกเพิ่มเติมบ้างไหมครับว่าเทรนด์นี้มาจากอะไร?

With the recent IFT-3, attention now shifts to IFT-4. Prediction markets on this are surprisingly active. Currently, the probability of 'successful orbital launch by July 31st' is around 60%. What are the key variables to watch for here beyond regulatory approval?

Starting to see wider spreads on prediction markets for the US Presidential election regarding Electoral College vs. Popular Vote outcomes. What factors do you attribute to this? Is it simply the noise of early polling, or are there specific regional data points influencing this divergence in projected probabilities?

While not directly financial, the 'will global warming be kept below 2 degrees Celsius' market is a fascinating long-term prediction. Implied probabilities are quite low for success. This has significant implications for future economic models and asset valuations. Any data sources or models particularly useful for this area?

Been diving into markets predicting key AI development milestones (e.g., AGI by 2030, specific benchmark achievements). These tend to have very low liquidity and wide spreads, understandably. However, I'm trying to find robust methodologies for establishing initial probability ranges. Any recommended frameworks or data sources for such long-duration, high-impact events?

For those consistently making accurate predictions on these markets, what methodologies do you employ?

• Do you rely heavily on quantitative models?
• Are you integrating qualitative news analysis?
• How do you handle cognitive biases in your own predictions?

Considering the current global landscape, what 'black swan' event categories do you think are currently undervalued or underrepresented in prediction markets for 2024? I'm specifically looking beyond the usual suspects (e.g., further supply chain shocks, major cyberattacks) and into more novel, low-probability but high-impact scenarios.

Beyond the outright winner, the popular vote spread often has interesting prediction markets. Are people looking at specific polling aggregates, or is there a focus on state-level swing state performance to gauge this? The spread seems to be widening slightly based on recent data.