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Kalshi's 'Will $BTC close above $65,000 on March 31st?' event - my take
I've been looking at the Kalshi contract regarding whether $BTC will close above $65,000 on March 31st. Given the current price action around $64268.87, it seems like a coin flip, but there's a lot of liquidity on the 'No' side.
My reasoning for leaning slightly 'No':
- Recent Momentum: While it's been resilient, the upward momentum seems to be slowing. We're seeing more consolidation.
- Macro Headwinds: The broader market, with $SPX down slightly, doesn't provide a strong tailwind.
- End-of-Month Volatility: March 31st is a Sunday, meaning settlement will likely be based on exchange closing prices, which can sometimes see less volume and more erratic movements.
I'm not saying it can't happen, but the odds feel slightly better on the downside given the current setup and the amount of capital parked on 'No' indicating a similar sentiment from others.