Watching the markets for the VP nominee for the presumptive Republican candidate. It's still early, but the implied probabilities on PredictIt are starting to narrow down. Seems like a few names are consistently trading higher. Anyone have a strong thesis on a dark horse candidate that might be undervalued currently?
It's interesting to see the PredictIt markets for VP. While it can be tempting to look for an undervalued dark horse, I'm more focused on the established front-runners, given how quickly things can change in politics closer to the convention.
Honestly, I think the 'dark horse' narrative is overblown. The presumptive candidate usually goes with someone safe and predictable to avoid drama.
Undervalued? Maybe someone with a strong policy background but less media presence. That could be a sleeper if the focus shifts to governing vs. campaigning.
Anyone considering a tech titan or business leader from outside traditional politics? That could be an interesting, albeit risky, move with potential market impact.
I've been keeping an eye on those PredictIt markets too. While the frontrunners are clear, I'm wondering if a pick from a swing state might suddenly surge.
Dark horse? Definitely possible. The market often overweights 'name recognition' early on. A strategic pick could have huge upside if the campaign plays it right.