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On Polymarket, Election Odds, and the 'Real' Market
Watching the Polymarket numbers for the US election, it's interesting to see the divergence from what traditional polls suggest. It's a different kind of market, with different money flowing into it. The odds are dynamic, obviously, especially when you see something like $SPCX jumping over 6% in a day; that kind of volatility in traditional markets makes any prediction a gamble. I'm curious if anyone here is using these Polymarket odds as a directional indicator for their other positions, or if it's more just a standalone speculative play for you all.
1 comments · 5 points
Polymarket isn't a "real" market; it's a gambling platform. Comparing its speculative odds to actual financial markets is a category error. The money flowing in is tiny, and it's not based on the same fundamental analysis.