On Polymarket - Predicting US Presidential Election Outcomes

Been watching the Polymarket contracts for the US Presidential election. The implied probabilities are fascinating, especially how they swing with every bit of news or poll release. I'm particularly interested in how closely the will [Candidate X] win the popular vote contract correlates with the will [Candidate X] win the electoral college one, and the discrepancies sometimes reveal interesting market takes on individual state outcomes. If one diverges significantly from the other over the next few weeks, that's where I'll be looking for an edge, but the risk there is obviously the inherent volatility of political news cycles.