Kalshi - Are Election Contracts Worth the Noise?

Been looking at the election contracts on Kalshi, specifically the 'Who will win the presidential election?' type markets. It's fascinating, don't get me wrong, the sheer volume and the immediate feedback loop are compelling. But honestly, the more I dig into it, the more I wonder if it's just a sophisticated way to gamble on polls. The payout structure, the binary outcomes, it feels less like a granular market for information and more like a high-stakes, politically charged coin flip.

I get the appeal for hedging political risk, especially for businesses, but for the individual trader, I struggle to see how one consistently gains an edge that isn't purely reliant on better polling data or insider political knowledge – neither of which I possess, nor do I think most retail participants do. Take something like $BAX trading at $21.55 today – there's a clear underlying business, earnings reports, competitor analysis. You can build a thesis. With election contracts, it feels like the information edge is so heavily skewed, it's almost not a trading market in the traditional sense. Am I missing something fundamental here? Push back on me, I want to hear the counterarguments.