On Polymarket and the Wisdom of Crowds (or lack thereof)

Been watching Polymarket's various event markets with a mix of fascination and increasing skepticism lately. While the idea of betting on real-world outcomes is intriguing, and theoretically, the collective intelligence of the crowd should, in theory, converge on accurate probabilities, I'm starting to wonder if it's more about hype and echo chambers than genuine insight.

Take any of the recent political markets, or even some of the more niche crypto-related ones. You see these wild swings in odds based on what feels like little more than social media sentiment or a single pundit's take, rather than any deep dive into fundamentals or verifiable data. It reminds me a bit of trying to trade on noise rather than signal. We're seeing $FTSE wobbling around 10477.61 today, and even with that kind of liquidity, you still get periods of irrational exuberance or fear. On Polymarket, where the underlying is often more opaque, it feels amplified. Am I just being a cynic, or are we sometimes just seeing the loudest voices setting the market, rather than the wisest? Change my mind.