On Polymarket, Are We Trading The Event Or The Crowd?

Been spending a bit more time on Polymarket lately, looking at some of these event markets. It got me thinking: how much of our 'edge' there is really about accurately predicting the underlying event, and how much is just about front-running the crowd's sentiment shifts? It feels like sometimes the market moves on sentiment swings rather than fundamental shifts in the probability of the actual outcome. Take some of the more politically charged markets – you see significant price action not necessarily from new information, but from the narrative shifting, or a big player coming in. It's almost more like trading a sentiment index than an actual binary event. The mechanics remind me a bit of the intraday whipsaws we see in something like $GBPJPY, currently at 215.50301, where short-term momentum can override the longer-term trend for a while. Are we just predicting what everyone else thinks will happen, or what will happen? I'd genuinely like to hear if others are seeing it differently, or if I'm missing a key dynamic.