Been diving into markets predicting key AI development milestones (e.g., AGI by 2030, specific benchmark achievements). These tend to have very low liquidity and wide spreads, understandably. However, I'm trying to find robust methodologies for establishing initial probability ranges. Any recommended frameworks or data sources for such long-duration, high-impact events?
For these kinds of long-duration, high-impact events, I find scenario planning helpful. You define best-case, worst-case, and most likely scenarios, then assign probabilities. It's more qualitative but helps frame the uncertainty.
Have you checked out any of the forecasting platforms like Metaculus or Good Judgment Project? They often tackle these types of questions and compile results from a diverse set of forecasters. Might give you a starting point for probability ranges.
That's a tough one, especially with AI development. Maybe look at how similar paradigm shifts were predicted in the past? Biotech or early internet adoption might offer some parallels, though the speed of AI is different.
I'd be cautious trying to put hard probabilities on something like AGI by 2030. The variables are just too numerous and the underlying tech is evolving too fast. Focus more on understanding the drivers and potential bottlenecks rather than precise timelines.