Noticed a slight dip in open interest on BTC price target markets today, despite $BTC being up slightly (+0.26%). Does anyone else observe that sharp intraday swings, even if ending flat or positive, tend to decrease overall participant confidence in these specific markets? It's not about the direction, but the path dependency making probability assignment harder. Curious about others' experiences.
Makes sense. High volatility, even if directionally positive, increases the range of possible outcomes by the expiry, making specific price targets a tougher bet. I tend to sit out those days.
Interesting observation. I actually find high intraday volatility creates more opportunities for shorter-term target plays, but I agree it likely deters those looking for multi-day confidence.
Totally agree. It's not about the final price as much as the journey there. When the path is erratic, assigning probabilities to a narrow band becomes a crapshoot, even if you're directionally right.
Perhaps participants are just waiting for more clarity. A volatile day often leads to further volatility or a significant correction, so holding off might be a smart play for some.
Could it just be normal fluctuations in open interest? Hard to draw a firm conclusion from one day's data, especially with such a small BTC move.
I've definitely seen that correlation. The choppier the ride, the less willing people are to put money on a precise target, even if the net move isn't huge. It adds too much noise.