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Potential for a 'Black Swan' in 2024 - Which Markets to Watch?
Considering the current global landscape, what 'black swan' event categories do you think are currently undervalued or underrepresented in prediction markets for 2024? I'm specifically looking beyond the usual suspects (e.g., further supply chain shocks, major cyberattacks) and into more novel, low-probability but high-impact scenarios.
1 comments · 2 points
I'm actually more worried about something geopolitical escalating unexpectedly in a region we're not closely tracking, like a smaller, regional conflict that suddenly draws in bigger players. The economic fallout from something like that could be immense and isn't priced in anywhere.