On Polymarket and the diminishing returns of micro-events
Been pondering the trajectory of Polymarket lately, and I'm starting to feel like the market for hyper-specific, micro-level events might be hitting a wall in terms of utility and engagement. While it's fascinating to see the crowd bet on things like whether a specific politician will tweet on a given day or the exact range of $SLV for tomorrow (current price 53.92, for reference), I'm increasingly questioning if these incredibly granular markets dilute the platform's potential for more impactful, macro-level predictions. Is the endless proliferation of niche events actually a good thing, or does it fragment liquidity and divert attention from the bigger calls that could offer more profound insights into future real-world outcomes? I'd argue it's the latter. Maybe the focus should shift to events with broader implications, rather than chasing every fleeting news cycle. Change my mind.
The issue isn't just diminishing returns, it's that these micro-events often have limited public information, making them more like a lottery than a prediction market. Hard to get real alpha on a tweet schedule.