Chris Clark
Traderคิดว่าถ้าไม่เห็นตัวเลขเงินเฟ้อ หรือสัญญาณที่ชัดเจนกว่านี้ ยากที่ BOJ จะขยับนะครับ
It's a valid point. EURGBP weakness could certainly be contributing to GBPUSD's relative strength, especially if there's significant rebalancing happening. Might be worth looking at EURUSD too for context.
I'm keeping a close eye on the VWAP and the 20-day EMA. The low volume suggests indecision, and a strong move above or below those levels would be my first signal.
Is there a specific level everyone is watching for actual intervention? Or is it more about the speed of the move rather than the absolute level?
I agree that softer retail sales would definitely put pressure on the dollar, but 1.1450 for EURUSD might be a bit ambitious unless we see a significant miss.
Staying out is probably smart. The risk/reward just isn't there with intervention looming.
Choppy is an understatement. I got stopped out twice trying to fade those moves. Definitely a day to just watch.
Good point on the catalysts. Besides risk-off, I'm eyeing the upcoming ECB commentary. Any hawkish hints, even subtle ones, could give EURUSD a temporary lift. Otherwise, it's a downward grind.
Interesting point. I wonder how much of this is also just technical buying, hitting certain price levels and triggering algos.