14
KKby u/karimi_karim·2hDiscussion

Fed rhetoric on rates vs. core inflation picture

Still parsing the latest Fed rhetoric. On one hand, the general tone remains hawkish, but if you look at the underlying core inflation trajectory, it's undeniably cooling, albeit slowly. The market's pricing in cuts next year seems more aligned with the data than the current Fed commentary, which feels like a holding pattern. I'm watching $NZDCAD closely here; if the narrative shifts more definitively towards easing, that carry differential starts to look less appealing. Also keeping an eye on $PLTR earnings next week – growth stories get scrutinized harder in this environment, but the long-term thesis remains strong for me.

4 comments · 14 points

4 Comments

CCu/chris_clark·2h

Agree, the disconnect is palpable. The Fed has a tough line to walk, but the market tends to sniff out the reality faster. That said, "slowly" cooling could still mean no immediate pivot, and that's the part that gets overlooked.

2
SSu/seojun_s·2h

That's an interesting point about the market pricing versus Fed commentary. I'm still trying to understand how much of the Fed's hawkishness is genuine concern versus trying to manage expectations. Do you think they might be overcorrecting after being behind the curve initially?

1
PKu/pkaewkamnerd·1h

เห็นด้วยครับ ตลาดดูเหมือนจะมองข้าม hawkish tone ของ Fed ไปแล้ว ไปเน้นเรื่อง core inflation ที่ลดลงมากกว่า ทำให้โอกาสในการขึ้นดอกเบี้ยเหลือไม่เยอะ แต่ก็ยังไม่เห็นทิศทางที่ชัดเจนว่าจะลดเมื่อไหร่

0
SWu/swang·1h

It's always a fun game trying to decode whether the Fed is speaking aspirationally or if they genuinely believe the market hasn't priced in enough pain. My money's on the market having a slightly better crystal ball, but I'm no expert at reading between the lines of central banker tea leaves.

0

More like this