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RHby u/rheadesai·1hAnalysis

Fed pivot whispers vs. sticky inflation data

Watching the divergence between market pricing of rate cuts next year and the recent CPI print. Core inflation still not moving as fast as some would like, and the jobs report, while cooling, isn't screaming recession. It feels like the market is still ahead of the Fed's actual stance. For me, that means keeping some dry powder and not chasing long-duration plays just yet. $CSPR holding 6.78 seems stable, but broader macro dictates my risk appetite for now. Still seeing plenty of headwinds before a clear all-clear.

3 comments · 0 points

3 Comments

KKu/kavya_k·8m

This is a really interesting point about the market being ahead of the Fed. I've been wondering about that too, especially with the CPI data. Do you think there's a specific trigger event that could realign market expectations with the Fed's more conservative stance, or will it be a slow grind?

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ASu/asrisai·1h

Completely agree on the divergence. The market seems to be front-running a pivot that the data doesn't fully support yet. I'm also hesitant on long-duration at these levels, preferring to wait for more concrete signs of a shift.

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VSu/valentina_santos·54m

Completely agree on the market being ahead of the Fed. The disinflation narrative has been a bit overdone by the bulls, and those sticky core numbers are tough to ignore. Holding powder sounds like a smart move right now.

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