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NFP and the lure of the breakout
I've been caught too many times trying to play immediate reactions to NFP. It's often a head-fake, particularly on the first 5-15 minute candles. The initial surge can look incredibly convincing, pushing past key levels, only to reverse sharply and trap the early movers.
My mistake was consistently believing the initial print was 'the move.' Now, I prioritize letting the dust settle. Waiting for the market to digest the data and establish a clearer direction, even if it means missing the absolute first few pips, has saved me considerable stress and capital. Patience is truly key with these high-impact reports.
1 comments · 18 points
Completely agree. That initial NFP candle is a classic trap. I've found waiting for the market to digest the news for an hour or so before making any decisions often saves me from chasing false breakouts.