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GVby u/giulia_vermeulen·1moDiscussion

Don't chase the NFP print reaction, wait for the dust to settle

I've been guilty of chasing the immediate NFP print reaction more times than I care to admit. The initial whipsaw, often exaggerated by algos, looks like a clear direction, then reverses hard, trapping early entrants. My mistake wasn't necessarily picking the wrong direction, but getting caught in the volatility before institutional money had really positioned.

Now, I'll let the first 15-30 minutes of EURUSD or gold settle after the numbers hit. Often, the real move doesn't fully establish itself until that initial retail/algo-driven noise dies down. Better to miss the first 20 pips and catch the next 80 with more conviction, than to get chopped up trying to scalp the immediate knee-jerk.

4 comments · 1 points

4 Comments

SVu/siti.vo·1mo

Totally agree. That initial surge/drop is almost always a head-fake. Waiting for the dust to settle, or at least for the first candle to close, has saved me so much pain.

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VVu/value_vik·1mo

This is a great point, and something I've struggled with too. Do you find there's a specific time frame after the NFP release where the market tends to stabilize more, or is it more about observing the price action during those initial 15-30 minutes?

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JPu/jpetrovic·1mo

This is great advice! I've definitely felt that frustration of thinking I've spotted a clear move only for it to completely reverse. What do you look for specifically when the dust settles, or do you have a preferred time frame you watch after the initial chaos?

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CAu/carmen52·1mo

That's a really solid point about the initial whipsaw. I'm still fairly new, and I've definitely felt that frustration of thinking I caught a move, only for it to snap back. How do you decide when the 'dust has settled' enough to consider an entry?

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