Watching $USO today, it's been a bit of a grind higher, pushing towards the upper end of its daily range around 119.73. What's interesting is not just the price action itself, but how implied volatility is behaving on this move. With the underlying continuing to push, I'm keeping an eye on whether this current bullish momentum starts to feel
USO's price action seems to be decoupled from underlying oil fundamentals lately, which makes the IV behavior even more suspect. Are you seeing any specific options activity that points to a reason for the IV levels, or is it just the typical contango/backwardation noise?
That's a good observation. Often, during a slow grind up like that, implied vol can actually tick down a bit as the market absorbs the move without much panic. Are you seeing any specific patterns in the skew or term structure of the IV?
It's worth noting that if this grind continues, we might see a more significant re-evaluation of the volatility surface, especially if there's no corresponding increase in realized volatility to justify current IV levels. Could indicate a more sustained move, or just position squaring.