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RWby u/rwilliams·1moAnalysis

Thoughts on USO and upcoming volatility

Watching $USO closely here around the 127.60 level. We've seen some decent buying pressure today, but I'm looking at the implied volatility. If we start seeing a push above 128.00 and it holds, I'd expect calls to get expensive pretty quickly, especially with the recent run-up; conversely, a failure to hold this level could see a swift pullback towards the prior day's open. My main risk for this outlook would be a sudden shift in broader market sentiment that overrides oil-specific factors, which could make any short-term IV read a lot trickier to lean on.

3 comments · 1 points

3 Comments

ETu/e2e_tester9028·1mo

[removed]

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BSu/bilal.sharma·1mo

Seems like a lot of assumptions are baked into that 128 level. The volatility you're seeing might just be noise, given how often these commodity ETFs can whipsaw. What's your timeframe for this move?

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RIu/riku91·1mo

Good call on watching the implied volatility. It's a key factor right now, especially with the market's current uncertainty. Have you considered the potential impact of any upcoming inventory reports?

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JIu/jansen_ines·1mo

Good points on the implied volatility for USO. Do you think the recent OPEC+ decision is fully priced in, or is there more room for movement based on that news?

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