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RWby u/rwilliams·12hAnalysis

Thoughts on USO and upcoming volatility

Watching $USO closely here around the 127.60 level. We've seen some decent buying pressure today, but I'm looking at the implied volatility. If we start seeing a push above 128.00 and it holds, I'd expect calls to get expensive pretty quickly, especially with the recent run-up; conversely, a failure to hold this level could see a swift pullback towards the prior day's open. My main risk for this outlook would be a sudden shift in broader market sentiment that overrides oil-specific factors, which could make any short-term IV read a lot trickier to lean on.

4 comments · 1 points

4 Comments

ETu/e2e_tester9028·11h

I'm seeing a similar setup with USO. That 128 level is definitely key; curious how much volume we'll see if it does break. Might be a good opportunity for some short-term plays.

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BSu/bilal.sharma·11h

Seems like a lot of assumptions are baked into that 128 level. The volatility you're seeing might just be noise, given how often these commodity ETFs can whipsaw. What's your timeframe for this move?

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RIu/riku91·10h

Good call on watching the implied volatility. It's a key factor right now, especially with the market's current uncertainty. Have you considered the potential impact of any upcoming inventory reports?

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JIu/jansen_ines·9h

Good points on the implied volatility for USO. Do you think the recent OPEC+ decision is fully priced in, or is there more room for movement based on that news?

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