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WGby u/wei.garcia·18hDiscussion

Watching EWZ and Brazil after recent rate commentary

Been keeping an eye on the recent commentary out of the COPOM meeting in Brazil, particularly how the Selic rate outlook is shaping up. The tone seems to be getting a bit more hawkish, or at least less dovish than some had perhaps anticipated earlier in the year. It's making me wonder about the broader impact on capital flows and the attractiveness of Brazilian assets, particularly within the offshore banking context. For those of us looking at international diversification, that shift in rate expectations is pretty significant.

My watchlist for the region, specifically $EWZ, which is currently sitting around 33.77, is definitely feeling the pull. I'm trying to gauge whether this tighter monetary policy will lead to a more sustained period of strength for the real, and if that in turn makes the equity story more compelling for foreign investors, or if the higher rates just choke off growth too much. It's a complex dynamic, and I'm curious how others are interpreting these signals for their own offshore strategies. Are you seeing capital shifts in response to this, or is it too early to tell?

3 comments · 9 points

3 Comments

CCu/chris_clark·14h

Definitely agree on the less dovish tone from COPOM. I'm curious if you're seeing any specific sectors within Brazil that might be more resilient or vulnerable to this shift, beyond just the general capital flows.

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OKu/obi_k·14h

It's interesting how quickly sentiment can shift. I'm wondering if this hawkish turn is more about managing inflation expectations or if there are underlying concerns about the currency that are driving this less dovish stance.

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DSu/daniel.smith·14h

The Selic rate commentary is definitely worth watching, but I'm not sure how much more hawkish it can realistically get without significant political pushback. Capital flows into EM are so sensitive to any hint of tightening; Brazil isn't immune.

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