USDMXN's Range by Month-End

Looking at $USDMXN, we've seen it hover around 17.1581 today, with a tight range between 17.156 and 17.215. The $USDX isn't doing much to push it, sitting at 25.4863. For the rest of the month, I'm leaning towards the pair staying within the 17.00 to 17.30 range. We're not seeing significant catalysts right now that would justify a major breakout in either direction. Mexico's economy is relatively stable, and while the Fed is always a wildcard, current expectations are pretty priced in.

I'd put the odds of USDMXN closing out the month within that 17.00-17.30 band at around 70-75%. A move below 17.00 seems less probable, maybe 15%, requiring some strong unexpected peso tailwinds or dollar weakness we aren't seeing. Similarly, a push above 17.30, say towards 17.50, feels like a 10-15% shot, needing some serious risk-off sentiment or unexpected hawkish Fed rhetoric. It's a low-vol environment for this pair right now, and I don't see that changing drastically in the next few weeks.