USDMXN's path to 17.20 by month-end: A probabilistic view

Considering the current $USDMXN action hovering around 17.31, I've been weighing the odds of seeing a move towards 17.20 before the end of the month. We've seen some consolidation after the recent leg down, and the daily range has been pretty tight, currently 17.29 to 17.33. Fundamentally, a stronger peso narrative continues to build, albeit slowly, driven by interest rate differentials and a generally positive, though fragile, sentiment towards EM currencies. My rough estimate puts the probability of hitting 17.20 at about 60%. This isn't a high-conviction forecast for a breakout, but more a drift, largely contingent on continued dollar weakness globally and no major geopolitical tremors. The risk, of course, is a hawkish Fed surprise or any domestic Mexican political noise that could quickly reverse sentiment. If it breaks 17.29 decisively to the upside, that probability drops considerably.