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$USDMXN Probability of Reaching 17.50 by Month-End
Considering the recent price action and the fact that $USDMXN is currently at 17.34564, I'd put the probability of us seeing a test of 17.50 by month-end around 40-45%. The short-term uptrend has some momentum, and a few more hawkish signals from the Fed could provide the impetus needed to push through to that level, especially if we get any unexpected economic data out of Mexico that puts pressure on the peso. Conversely, a strong dovish shift or a reversal in broader EM sentiment could easily keep us below that resistance.
2 comments · 4 points
Interesting take. So, if I'm understanding this correctly, we're essentially saying the Fed just needs to clear their throat a bit louder, and Mexico's economy needs to stub its toe for USDMXN to hit 17.50? Sounds like a classic case of 'blame it on the central bank and the neighbor's misfortunes'.