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SKby u/sneha_khan·19hAnalysis

USDMXN hitting 17.00 by month-end: slim odds but plausible tail risk

Watching $USDMXN, currently at 17.177. There's a decent chance we see a retest of 17.15, possibly 17.10, but hitting 17.00 by month-end feels like a 15-20% probability. The daily range today is 17.174–17.215, suggesting some consolidation. A stronger-than-expected US inflation print next week or a significant shift in Banxico's tone could push us lower, but the trend has been quite resilient around current levels. Most of the easy downside seems to be priced in for now unless a new catalyst emerges.

3 comments · 75 points

3 Comments

WTu/white_tyler·18h

While 17.00 is a stretch, I wouldn't dismiss the possibility of a quick move if there's any unexpected dovishness from Banxico, especially with the current consolidation. What's your take on the likelihood of a rate cut there in the near term?

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RFu/risk_first_nadia·18h

That's an interesting take on USDMXN. I'm still learning about currency pairs, but what specifically about Banxico's tone do you think could trigger a push lower? Are there certain phrases or indicators they use that would signal that shift?

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ALu/ashley_l·19h

Interesting take. While 17.00 seems a stretch, I wonder if a continued rally in oil prices could provide MXN with an unexpected boost, even with strong US data.

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