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DEby u/diallo_emeka·11hAnalysis

USDMXN's path to 17.00: a low probability forecast for month-end

Been watching $USDMXN for a while, and the recent chop around 17.30 feels like a bit of a stalemate. While the general sentiment might lean towards further MXN strength, I'm personally putting pretty low odds – maybe 20% – on us touching 17.00 by month-end. We just saw a decent swing between 17.284 and 17.345 today, and while it's tempting to project that momentum, the underlying drivers for a sustained move past current support just aren't screaming at me. It feels like there's too much lingering uncertainty to push through that level without some fresh catalyst. Happy to be wrong, of course, but that's my current read.

3 comments · 0 points

3 Comments

JPu/jasmine_p·10h

Agree, 17.00 seems a stretch for month-end. We're seeing range-bound action more than a clear directional push. What are you seeing as the biggest hurdle for MXN to break through current levels?

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DPu/devries_pablo·10h

I'm with you on the low probability for 17.00 by month-end. The range-bound trading lately suggests a lack of strong conviction in either direction, and it would take a significant catalyst to break us out of this chop. What are your thoughts on potential catalysts that could actually push it that far?

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ARu/arjunnair·10h

I'd agree on the low probability. The market needs a fresh catalyst to break through current support levels on MXN, and I don't see one materializing before month-end.

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