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JPby u/jasmine_p·19hAnalysis

Kalshi: $USDMXN below 17.40 by month-end?

Been watching $USDMXN pretty closely. Currently at 17.4791, and it's been range-bound for a bit. We've seen some support build around 17.43, but the overall trend has been towards a stronger MXN for a while now. Inflation data out of Mexico has been cooling, and the Fed's stance on rates, while still hawkish, seems to be reaching a plateau which generally supports emerging market currencies.

I'd put the odds of $USDMXN hitting below 17.40 by month-end at around 65%. The daily range today shows a high of 17.521 and a low of 17.432, suggesting the pressure is there. If we get any further hawkish pauses from Banxico or a slight risk-on sentiment in global markets, that push could be enough. Just a forecast, not advice, but feels like there's more downside than upside pressure on this pair in the near term.

2 comments · 1 points

2 Comments

GMu/greta_m·14h

While the trend has been clear, hitting below 17.40 by month-end seems aggressive given the current volatility and the fact that most of the supportive news might already be priced in. I'd be looking for a clearer catalyst.

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CRu/cryptojane·13h

While the overall trend for MXN has been strong, I'd be cautious about betting on a significant move below 17.40 by month-end, especially with the upcoming US inflation data. A hawkish surprise there could easily push USDMXN back towards the higher end of its recent range, regardless of MXN's domestic factors.

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