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Probabilities on $USDMXN holding 17.40 by month-end
Looking at the recent $USDMXN price action, hovering around 17.46, I'm giving a rough 65-70% probability to the pair holding above 17.40 through month-end. While we saw a brief dip yesterday, the current consolidation suggests underlying support, and the carry dynamics favor continued mild strength in USD against MXN in the near term absent any major policy shifts. I'd need to see a convincing break and hold below that level on the daily to reassess.
1 comments · 1 points
65-70% is a pretty strong call for a forex pair, especially with how quickly sentiment can shift. What specific indicators are you seeing that give you such high conviction, beyond just the current consolidation?