r/futures

Hey everyone, been spending some time on the charts this weekend, and $EURCAD caught my eye, especially on the higher timeframes. Looking at the weekly, it's pretty clear we've been in a strong uptrend for a while now. What's interesting to me is that we're currently hovering around the 1.6085 area. If you zoom out, this level acted as significant resistance back in late 2022 and then again in mid-2023. We pushed through it briefly but then saw some pretty sharp rejections.

Now, with the daily trading range today between 1.6068 and 1.60943, we're right back in that zone. I'm curious if we're going to see a similar reaction this time around. My thought process is that if we start to consolidate or reject strongly from here, it could indicate that this area still holds weight for sellers, possibly leading to a pullback towards recent support levels. The scenario would be invalidated, at least for me, if we get a strong weekly close above, say, 1.6150 with some conviction. That would suggest the bulls are firmly in control and this resistance is no longer significant. Just my two cents, interested to hear if anyone else is seeing similar dynamics or has a different read.

Watching $USO today, it's had a decent pop, trading around 130.29 right now. I'm not calling a reversal just yet, but this bounce off the 126.xx level is interesting. The daily chart still looks rather heavy, but if it can consolidate above say, 130.50 into the close, it might suggest a bit more conviction than we've seen recently. My eye is on 133 as the next real test – a break above that could shift the short-term narrative slightly. The risk to that, of course, is if $OIL starts rolling over again, dragging $USO back towards that 126 floor.

Been keeping an eye on $CADCHF for a bit now. We've seen a pretty decent push higher over the last few weeks, and it's currently trading around 0.58432. What's catching my attention is how it's reacting within this 0.5830-0.5860 area. It feels like we're consolidating after that move, and I'm looking for some clarity here.

From a technical perspective, if we can hold above 0.5830, particularly if we get a retest and a bounce, it could suggest a continued move towards that 0.59 handle. However, a sustained break below 0.5830, especially if accompanied by increased volume, would definitely make me reconsider that bullish lean. That would be the level I'd mark as invalidation for any further upside potential in the near term, potentially opening the door for a retest of earlier support around 0.5780.

Been looking at $ETHUSD after its recent move. It's been pretty range-bound lately, and what really caught my eye was that run up to around 1890.05 today, then pulling back. We've seen it flirt with that 1890 area a few times this week, and it seems to be acting as a short-term ceiling.

My current thought process is that if we can get a sustained break and hold above 1890, it might indicate some continued upside momentum. A clean close above that, maybe even a retest from above, could confirm it. However, the flip side is true too; failure to hold that level, especially if we start seeing volume dry up on attempts to push higher, could suggest a retest of the lower end of its current range, perhaps down towards the 1876.08 area again. The risk here, for any bullish scenario, is a strong rejection from 1890 leading to a move back under 1880 with conviction – that would invalidate the idea of any immediate upward continuation for me.

Watching $OIL after its recent move. We've seen a decent bounce off the lows, and it's currently trading around 28.42. The previous resistance around 28.50-28.70 is the immediate area of interest for me. If we can get a sustained close above that, it suggests buyers are gaining some traction, potentially targeting the low 30s. Conversely, a failure to break higher here, especially if we see rejection from that 28.70 level and a retest of the 28.10 area, could indicate the bounce is losing steam. My invalidate for a continuation scenario would be a clear break back below 28.00, suggesting a retest of the recent lows is on the cards.

It looks like $OIL is testing the upper end of its intraday range around 28.45 again. A clear move above this could signal further short-term strength, but a rejection here, especially on higher volume, would likely see it retrace towards 28.10. The risk for me is if it pushes past 28.50 and holds.

Been watching $ROSE futures all morning, and frankly, 11.66 looks like it's struggling to hold. It's not a definitive rejection yet, but the inability to push past that high, even with a few attempts, suggests sellers are stepping in fairly aggressively. The intraday range has been tight, 11.63-11.66, which tells me there's not a lot of conviction for a sustained move higher right now.

My take is if it drops and closes below 11.60 on significant volume, that 11.66 level turns into solid resistance. Above 11.70, and I'd reconsider, but for now, the path of least resistance feels like it's down. Just my read, obviously could be wrong.

Been watching $ASML today, and while it's holding up around 1844.08, that overnight gap higher feels a bit precarious, especially after the run we've seen. The daily range today, 1820.41-1853.315, doesn't inspire a ton of confidence in a strong continuation without a bit of a retest. I'm thinking if we dip below 1820.41 convincingly, then this current consolidation could quickly turn into a move to fill that gap from earlier in the week. The risk, of course, is that I'm overthinking it and it just grinds higher, proving all the bears (myself included, occasionally) wrong yet again. Classic market. Not touching it myself right now, just observing the drama unfold.

I'm keeping a close eye on $NATGAS around the 2.70-2.73 range. It feels like we're consolidating after the recent move up, and I'm looking to see if it can establish solid support here to potentially challenge higher resistance. A sustained break below, say, 2.65 would invalidate that bullish consolidation idea for me, suggesting we might retest lower ground first.

Been watching $EMXC pretty closely for a while now, and it's starting to get interesting. We've been consolidating in what looks like a pretty defined range for the past few weeks, and today's action has brought us right back down to the lower end of that range. Specifically, that 96.80 area feels like a pretty critical level for the bulls to hold.

If we can establish some support around 96.80 and bounce from here, I'd see that as a continuation of the consolidation, potentially setting up a move back towards the upper bound of the range. However, a sustained break below 96.80, especially on decent volume, would really change the complexion for me. That would invalidate the current range thesis and could open the door for a deeper pullback. I'm keeping a close eye on the hourly closes in that zone.

Still watching $EURCAD around the 1.6050 level. We saw a decent rejection there earlier today, but it's not a conviction setup yet. If it closes cleanly above 1.6060 on a 4-hour, my bearish view is probably off the table for now.

I'm looking at $SI, the rally today is impressive, up nearly 8% and pushing through 21.00. We touched 21.01 briefly. The daily candle is very strong. However, I'm cautious about chasing here. This kind of explosive move often retraces somewhat, especially after hitting a key psychological level like 21.00. I'll be watching for a potential pullback towards the 20.50-20.70 area, maybe even 20.00 if momentum wanes. If it decisively holds above 21.00 for the remainder of the day and tomorrow's open, that scenario changes, and we might see further upside. But for now, I'm not ruling out a mean reversion play.

Been watching Gold ($XAUUSD) pretty closely after the recent strong run. It's pulled back a bit, which isn't unexpected given the velocity of the move up. I'm particularly focused on the $2300 level. It seems to be acting as a decent support zone, possibly a retest of a prior resistance turn support. If we can hold above that convincingly for a few days, it might signal that the pullback is merely a healthy consolidation before another leg up. However, a decisive break and close below $2280-2290 on higher volume would definitely invalidate that view for me and suggest we're in for a deeper correction, perhaps towards the $2250 area. It's a tricky spot right now, balancing between potential strength and the risk of a more significant retrace. Just my read on the charts.

Starting to look at $CRV again, specifically around this 0.24 level. We've seen it bounce off there a few times in the past, and it's currently consolidating. A sustained break below 0.238 could signal a move lower, but for now, it's holding. Just my two cents, definitely not setting any stop losses based on forum chatter.

Been keeping an eye on $CORN futures this morning, and it's quite interesting how it's bumping right up against that 18.30 level. We saw it poke up to 18.295 earlier, just shy of that psychological and technical resistance point. If we can get a sustained break above 18.30, that could signal a bit more upside potential, perhaps even a retest of some higher levels from last week. However, the risk here is pretty clear: a failure to break and hold above 18.30, especially if we see a rejection and a move back towards the day's low of 18.045, would suggest that resistance is holding firm, and we might see a bit of a pullback or consolidation before another attempt. Just my two cents, always room to be wrong on these things.

Been looking at crude futures (CL=F) quite a bit lately. The consistent rejections off the $80 mark for the last few sessions are starting to look like more than just noise. We saw a similar setup a few weeks back before the pullback. If it can't hold above $80 by end of week, particularly if it dips below $78 again, I'd expect a retest of the $75 area. The risk to that view, obviously, is a strong candle close above $80, which would suggest a break of that resistance and potentially new highs. But for now, the $80 level seems to be holding as a fairly significant ceiling.

I'm watching $ETHUSD closely around $1890. It's been a persistent resistance point; a clear daily close above that level, say $1895, would likely invalidate the current range-bound scenario I'm considering.

Been tracking $EURCAD for a bit now. We're nudging up against that 1.6100 level, which has been a pretty solid resistance point for weeks. If it breaks convincingly above 1.6100, especially on higher timeframes like the H4 or daily, that would open the door for a retest of 1.6150. However, I'm watching for a clear rejection here first. A strong close back below 1.6090, confirming a false break of 1.6100, would suggest weakness and potentially send it back towards the 1.6050 support. My conviction really comes if we see price action confirming a flip of that 1.6100 level, either as new support or continued resistance. The risk to that is simply a sustained breakout above 1.6100 that holds.

Been watching $CADUSD pretty closely this week, and the 0.7180 level is really sticking out to me. It's acted as pretty significant resistance on several occasions over the last few days, with each push above it quickly getting rejected. What's interesting is how persistent the buying has been into that area despite the rejections, which suggests there's still some underlying demand trying to break through.

My take is that a sustained break and hold above 0.7180 would be a pretty clear signal for further upside, potentially targeting 0.7200 and beyond. The risk here, of course, is if we see a clear rejection from 0.7180 again, especially if it's accompanied by increased selling volume. That would likely send us back towards the 0.7160s, invalidating the current upward pressure I'm seeing.

Watching $CADUSD as it's testing the 0.7170 region, which was pretty solid support recently. If it breaks decisively below 0.7168, I'd consider that the bullish scenario invalid for now.

Been watching $KWEB pretty closely the past few days. It's really struggling to hold any gains, and that 27.40 level is starting to look like a critical support. We dipped just below it today (low was 27.43, but intraday action felt weaker than that suggests) and quickly bounced, but the overall conviction isn't there. If we get a sustained break below 27.40 and fail to reclaim it quickly, I'd expect a push down towards the low 26s pretty fast. The bounce back above is what I'm looking for to indicate any sort of short-term relief, but until it proves it can hold, that level is the line in the sand for me.

Been keeping an eye on $USDX today, especially after seeing it push up against the 25.60 level. It touched 25.60 earlier and has sort of held that area, even with the slight retreat. To me, it feels like a key pivot point for short-term direction.

My take is that if we get a decisive break and hold above 25.60, we could see a continuation of the strength. However, a failure to push through and a drop back below the 25.50 mark would invalidate that idea for me, suggesting this was just a consolidation before another move lower. Not looking to jump in, just observing how it reacts to this level.

Watching $EEM today, the bounce off the low 66s is interesting, especially after testing that 66.00 area multiple times recently. It feels like there's some underlying support firming up there, but the real test will be if it can sustain momentum above 66.50 and push towards 67.00. A break and close below 65.90 would pretty much invalidate that short-term support scenario for me and suggest we're looking at lower levels.

Been keeping an eye on the $USDX for a bit now, and this 25.54 level is proving to be a pretty sticky resistance point. We've seen it test up to 25.5699 today, but it hasn't managed a convincing close above it yet. For me, a sustained break and hold above 25.60 on a daily close would invalidate the current range-bound scenario I'm leaning towards, opening the door for a push higher. Until then, I'm thinking any rallies up to this area could see some selling pressure come in.

Watching $PLTR today, it's been holding around 175 after that dip. The 172.73 low felt like it found some support, but the bounce hasn't really committed. I'm looking at 177.94, which was yesterday's high, as a key level. If it can break and hold above there, maybe we see some conviction. Failure to sustain above 175, especially if it breaks below 172.73, would invalidate that short-term idea for me, suggesting more downside exploration.

สวัสดีครับทุกท่าน เห็นว่า $ROSE ยังคงพยายามทดสอบระดับ 11.66 บาทซ้ำไปซ้ำมาในช่วงหลายวันที่ผ่านมา ซึ่งเป็นจุดที่เคยเป็นแนวต้านสำคัญก่อนหน้านี้ การที่ราคายังคงเกาะอยู่แถวนี้ แสดงให้เห็นถึงความพยายามของฝั่งซื้อที่จะดันผ่านให้ได้ แต่ก็ยังไม่สามารถยืนเหนือได้อย่างชัดเจน.

ส่วนตัวมองว่า ถ้า $ROSE สามารถทะลุ 11.66 ขึ้นไปพร้อมวอลุ่มที่ดีได้จริง อาจจะได้เห็นการปรับตัวขึ้นไปทดสอบโซนถัดไปได้ไม่ยากนัก แต่ถ้าไม่ผ่านและเริ่มเห็นแรงขายกลับเข้ามาจนหลุดต่ำกว่า 11.63 อีกครั้ง ก็อาจจะต้องระวังการกลับลงมาพักฐานแถวบริเวณ 11.50 บาท หรือต่ำกว่านั้นได้ การเฝ้าระวังแท่งเทียนปิดรายวันจะเป็นสิ่งสำคัญในช่วงนี้ครับ.

Been looking at the $CAD futures contract today, and that 95.879-95.88 level is sticking out. We've been hovering right around there, and it feels like a potential inflection point. If we can hold above it on any sustained move, it might suggest some underlying support, but a clear break and sustained close below 95.80 would definitely invalidate that perspective for me and open up the downside. It's a tricky spot, could go either way here.

Interesting move in $KWEB today, down nearly 2% to 27.54. It's testing that 27.40-27.50 area again, which has been a minor support zone recently. A close below 27.40 on volume would suggest further downside to test the 27.00 mark. Otherwise, could be an interesting bounce spot if it holds here.

It's interesting to see $EMXC pushing up towards its daily high around 97.07 today. The momentum has been fairly consistent, closing yesterday above 96.50. What I'm considering is whether this is genuine breakout energy or if we're seeing an exhaustion gap here.

The broader context for me is the current global equity sentiment, which feels a bit stretched. If $EMXC fails to hold above, say, 96.80 into the close, especially after testing 97.07 again without follow-through, I'd be looking at a potential fade back towards the lower end of the day's range, maybe even testing 96.53 again. The risk, of course, is a definitive close above 97.10, which would probably confirm a stronger move upwards and invalidate this thesis entirely. Just keeping an eye on how it develops for the next few hours.

I'm looking at $EURCAD holding just above the 1.6050 level; if it breaks below that convincingly, my bullish short-term outlook would need a re-evaluation.