NFP implications for July rate hike odds

Watching the upcoming NFP print very closely for July rate hike implications. Current market pricing for a 25bps hike is around 70%, but a significant deviation from expectations could flip that quickly. If we see NFP come in materially stronger than the street's 180k consensus, say north of 220k, and average hourly earnings also tick up, I'd put the odds of a July hike closer to 85%. Conversely, a sub-150k print would likely push the probability below 50% and solidify a skip. The Fed's rhetoric has been data-dependent, and this NFP is a big one. No strong directional bias on $NZDCAD or $ADA from this report, though broader USD strength/weakness could have secondary effects. $IDR is somewhat insulated given its local dynamics but can't fully escape the global risk sentiment shifts if the print is truly wild.