Thoughts on NFP Impact on Rate Hike Probability

Considering the recent NFP print, I'd put the probability of a 50 bps hike in the next FOMC meeting around 65-70%. The labor market remains tighter than many expected, which gives the Fed more room to continue their hawkish stance without immediately triggering significant unemployment concerns. The market's pricing seems to be catching up to this reality, though some stubborn resistance persists. We'll likely see a continued re-evaluation of forward rate expectations, which could put further pressure on $OIL as demand concerns mount, especially if this leads to a stronger dollar.