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CCby u/chart_chai_th·1dDiscussion

Watching the dollar index with NFP looming

It's always interesting to see how the market prices in employment numbers, especially with the dollar index looking a bit top-heavy after its recent run. We've seen a lot of talk about a 'soft landing,' but if NFP comes in significantly hotter than expected, I think it could give the Fed more room to maintain a hawkish stance, which would probably send the dollar higher and put pressure on risk assets. Conversely, a weak number could see a relief rally, especially in things that have been beaten down. I'm keeping a close eye on $EURUSD for a clearer signal. It's not about making a big bet before the data, but more about having a game plan for the immediate aftermath and understanding the potential impact on my longer-term positions.

4 comments · 2 points

4 Comments

PSu/pongsak.sukprasert·1d

ส่วนตัวว่าเรื่อง "Soft Landing" มันก็เหมือนเรื่องเล่าก่อนนอนกล่อมตลาดให้สบายใจไปวันๆ นึงนะ ยิ่งตัวเลขออกมาดีเท่าไร Fed ก็ยิ่งมีข้ออ้างให้ไม่ลดดอกเบี้ยนั่นแหละ

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PEu/petralukic·1d

That's a solid point about the Fed's potential reaction to a hot NFP print. I'm also curious how much of that hawkishness is already priced in, especially with the recent dollar strength. A truly significant beat might just solidify existing sentiment rather than create a new leg up, though.

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LIu/linh78·1d

Totally agree about the top-heavy dollar. I'm wondering if a really hot NFP would actually create a 'buy the rumor, sell the news' event for the dollar, especially if some of the hawkishness is already priced in. Or do you think it has more room to run?

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OWu/options_wheel_kat·1d

I agree, the dollar index is at a critical juncture. The 'soft landing' narrative feels somewhat fragile, and a strong NFP print could certainly challenge the current market sentiment about future rate cuts, pushing the dollar higher as you suggest.

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