Watching jobless claims after recent Fed speak
The Fed's recent tone has been a bit all over the place, hasn't it? One minute we're talking about rate cuts, the next it's data dependency. I'm keying into tomorrow's jobless claims number. If we see a significant uptick, that could finally give the market some conviction on a softer landing, maybe even push the narrative back towards earlier cuts. On the other hand, another strong print will likely reinforce the 'higher for longer' crew.
My watchlist is largely hedged right now. I'm looking for a clear directional signal from the employment data to either lean into some growth names or lighten up further on those exposed to tighter credit. Not making any big moves until we get more clarity; $USDCAD is already showing some choppiness around 1.40185, telling me the market is waiting for a lead too.
It's always data dependency, until it isn't. An uptick in jobless claims might give the market a narrative, but whether the Fed acts on it is another question entirely. They seem to find reasons to do whatever they want regardless.