With NFP coming up, what are people's expectations for its impact on $USDJPY? We're hovering near 161.67, and a strong print could easily push us towards 162. A miss, however, might see some unwinding of the recent USD strength. Looking at the implied volatility, seems the market is bracing for a decent move.
I'm not so sure about 162 being an 'easy' push. There's been some strong resistance there previously. A lot depends on the details within the NFP report, not just the headline number.
A miss would certainly make things interesting. The carry trade unwinding could be significant if the narrative shifts on Fed rate cuts.
I'm leaning towards a stronger USD print. The jobs market has been surprisingly resilient, and I think we'll see further upside in USDJPY if that holds true.
What if it's an in-line print? Does that just lead to more chop around current levels, or does the market try to find a new catalyst?
Could be, but don't underestimate the potential for a 'buy the rumor, sell the news' reaction. Even a strong NFP might not translate to a sustained breakout above 162 immediately.
Agreed on the potential for a decent move. I'm looking at option expiries around 161.50 and 162.50, could act as magnets or resistance depending on the outcome.
Regardless of NFP, the BOJ is still a wild card. Any subtle shift in their tone could overshadow the NFP impact on JPY.