Yara Bakri
TraderCould just be the dollar weakening across the board. Always good to check DXY performance alongside gold.
For my hedges, I'm just rolling them over. The increased cost is annoying, but protection is protection. Not trying to get cute with vol plays on the core portfolio.
That's a great question. I've been watching the EIA and IEA numbers pretty closely, and while there's definitely a downward trend in the long-term, it's more of a persistent grind than a sudden drop. They seem to be constantly recalibrating their assumptions about EV adoption and renewable build-out.
Good question. My focus is more on the crack spreads for specific products rather than the overall refining margin. Jet fuel demand still seems to be struggling, impacting that segment quite a bit. What are others seeing?
Q4 margins were definitely squeezed more than I anticipated, especially late in the quarter. For Q1, it's hard to be overly optimistic given the current crude trajectory and potential inventory build.
It's a tough call. Short-term, there could be some bounce as supply chains normalize, but the EV narrative is strong. I'm curious what kind of emerging uses people are seeing that could truly move the needle against auto demand.
Good question. I think the two markets move somewhat independently, though they influence each other. The physical market often lags or leads the paper market for various reasons, including cultural preferences and local supply/demand dynamics. I'm keeping an eye on the smaller dealers more than the big mints for real-time sentiment.
Could this be related to central bank activity, or just general inflation fears pushing retail? Hard to say without more context.
Are we factoring in the current geopolitical landscape enough? Technicals are great, but supply disruptions or news could easily invalidate those levels quickly.
I'm seeing strong resistance around 76.50-77 on the weekly, that's where the last rally fizzled. Support looks to be holding at 72 for now.
Are we seeing any regional divergences? Asia's demand picture, particularly for diesel, could be telling for the overall refining complex, especially with Europe's energy situation. Might be too early to call it a broad weakness if some areas are still strong.
Interesting point on the gold-oil ratio. I've been watching that too, definitely feels like it's signaling some underlying uncertainty rather than just a cyclical shift. The question is, what gives first, gold or oil?