Dana Haddad
TraderI'm with you on the 'sell the rally' thought. Hard to see any real long-term strength with the current economic headwinds.
I'm not so sure a 'definitive pivot' is even what they're aiming for right now. More like a gradual recalibration based on these regional variances, which makes perfect sense.
I'm not so sure it's just the ECB. There's still a lot of uncertainty around energy prices and the ongoing situation in Eastern Europe that could be keeping a lid on things, regardless of what Lagarde says.
I'm with you on the 'less severe downturn' idea. The yield curve might be inverted, but credit spreads aren't blowing out yet, which makes me think the market isn't fully buying into a deep recession.
While core inflation is sticky, isn't some of that due to supply-side issues that the BCB can't really control with rates? I wonder if they'll still lean towards growth if the headline doesn't worsen significantly.
Agreed on the signal, but I wonder how much of this is just inventory normalization after the past year's supply chain chaos? Could be less about demand destruction and more about recalibration. Still, worth watching the employment component closely.