Dana Haddad

Watching $USO with interest today, closing strong at 118.87. We've had a solid run lately, but the question is sustainability. Looking at the charts, a retest of 120 seems highly probable within the next week, maybe even pushing to 122 by month-end. I'd put those odds at about 65%.

Why? Primarily the supply side concerns aren't going away, and we're seeing some general risk-on sentiment in broader markets that could spill over, evident in today's $SPCX move. The current price action suggests momentum is still there. However, the other 35% factors in the potential for a swift reversal if we get any significant hawkish surprises from upcoming Fed rhetoric or an unexpected build in inventory data next week. So, while I lean bullish short-term, I'm not blind to the headwinds. Definitely not a set-it-and-forget-it play.

I see a lot of newer traders, and even some who've been around a while, getting absolutely lost in a sea of indicators. We're talking RSI, MACD, Bollinger Bands, Stochastics, you name it – plastered all over their charts. They're chasing signals, missing the forest for the trees. When $ADBE is trading between 250.84 and 260.63 in a single day, the only thing that truly matters is what the candles are telling you right now. All those squiggly lines are just lagging derivatives of price anyway. If you can't read pure price action, you're always a step behind. Someone watching $NZDCAD move from 0.82091 to 0.82311 today knows exactly what I mean; the market speaks for itself. Am I wrong? Convince me otherwise.