$SPX500

Been watching $SPX500 pretty closely this week, and that 7300 area has proven to be a surprisingly sticky support zone. After the initial dip, it bounced cleanly off 7294.18 earlier today, and we've seen a pretty decent recovery up to 7354.02 as I type this. It feels like there's a good bid under it, almost as if folks are just waiting for any excuse to step back in. I'm leaning towards the idea that if we can hold this range, we might see another push towards the upper end of its recent consolidation, potentially eyeing that 7392.95 high from earlier.

Now, the fly in the ointment, as always, is what if it doesn't hold? A clean break and sustained move below 7290, especially on any real volume, would definitely throw a wrench in that whole thesis. My concern would be a retest of the lower lows we've seen in the past, maybe even a quick dip to the 7200s if sentiment really sours. For now, though, it's holding, and the daily candle action suggests the bulls aren't quite ready to throw in the towel. It's a fun game of chicken, isn't it?

Watching the DAX closely. Given current momentum and the relatively muted inflation prints coming out of Germany, I'm assigning a roughly 60% probability of DAX hitting 18,500 before the end of Q2. The $SPX500 holding strong at 7354.02 definitely provides a tailwind, and while the $USDC stability at 0.99973 suggests no immediate currency shocks, the real driver here is the perceived undervaluation of some of the larger industrials if we see a manufacturing pickup. Downside risk comes from any unexpected hawkish shift from the ECB or a significant geopolitical event, but absent those, the path of least resistance seems higher for now.

Been keeping an eye on $SPX500 futures today, specifically the overhead around 7390-7400. We touched 7392.95 earlier, so it's clearly a level that buyers struggled to push through with any conviction. It's not a hard resistance line in my book, more a zone where momentum stalled out previously. If we see a solid close above 7400 on higher volume, it could indicate further upside toward 7450-7470.

Conversely, a failure to reclaim that 7390-7400 area, especially if coupled with a break below today's low of 7294.18, would make me reconsider any bullish bias for the short term. The risk for a continued push higher is obviously a rejection from this zone, potentially sending us back towards 7300 or lower. It's a key spot to watch for direction.

Been with a couple of the mid-tier prop firms for a while now, primarily trading $EURUSD and some $SPX500. Everything's generally been smooth on the trading side, but I'm starting to see more friction when it comes to the payout process itself. Not so much the prop firms delaying, but the third-party payment processors they use seem to be getting increasingly stringent with KYC/KYB, even for established accounts. It's slowing down withdrawals by several days in some instances. Wondering if this is a widespread issue others are encountering or if I'm just hitting a bad run with a few specific providers. Curious about others' recent experiences regarding payout reliability and onboarding with these third-party services.