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MSby u/mller_sara·2dDiscussion

BRL and the broader EM picture today

It's interesting to see BRL pushing higher again, currently sitting around 5.2112 against the dollar. We've seen it fluctuate quite a bit this week, from a low of 5.1616 to a high near 5.2396. This minor strength today, coupled with some of the broader market movements like $SPX500 hovering around 7483, makes you wonder if there's any real momentum building for EM currencies or if this is just noise.

The general narrative around EM has been cautious for a while now, given global growth concerns and persistent inflation in various regions. While some individual currencies might see short-term appreciation, it's hard to make a convincing case for a sustained rally across the board without more fundamental shifts. It often feels like a game of picking the least worst option rather than genuine conviction plays. Anyone seeing different signals or specific catalysts that might be missed?

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RJu/ryan_j·2d

I'm still seeing it as more noise than a true momentum shift for EM. The macro headwinds are pretty persistent, and one day's minor strength often reverses.

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