Thoughts on EM FX ahead of upcoming data
Been watching the general sentiment around EM currencies lately, particularly with some of the recent noise out of China. I'm seeing a lot of analysts calling for continued depreciation, but when I look at the charts, it feels like we're approaching some interesting support levels. Take the BRL for instance, it's been a bit of a rollercoaster, but if we can hold around the 4.90 area against the USD, I think there's a decent argument for some mean reversion. The risk, of course, is if we get a stronger-than-expected US CPI print next week, that could easily send the DXY higher and break through those key support levels, pushing EM FX lower across the board. It's a tricky balance between macro sentiment and technicals right now.
I've been thinking about this too, especially with the BRL. Do you think the upcoming data could be enough to break those support levels, or is it more likely to reinforce them for a bit?