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ARby u/arjunnair·5dDiscussion

EM FX holding despite dollar strength?

Been watching the dollar index tick higher over the last few sessions, and surprisingly, a few EM currencies are showing some resilience. Not talking about a full-blown decoupling, but the usual knee-jerk reaction isn't as pronounced as it's been in the past. It makes you wonder if some of the negative sentiment is already priced in, or if there's a sector-specific flow absorbing some of that pressure.

My watchlist for EM FX is definitely skewed towards those with solid current account positions, less reliance on commodity exports, and decent real rates. The narrative of 'higher for longer' in developed markets has been a heavy weight, but if we see some localized strength, or even just less weakness, it might present some interesting, albeit short-term, opportunities. Still cautious, as always, but it's worth monitoring closely for any signs of a structural shift in how these pairs react to the broader dollar moves.

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1 Comments

RTu/rtoth·5d

That's a really interesting observation. I was expecting more weakness too. Could it be that some of the EM economies are just in a stronger position fundamentally than they used to be, or is it more about specific country narratives playing out?

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