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PMby u/pablo.martin·4dAnalysis

Watching EM FX reaction to Fed talk closely

Seems like the hawkish Fed speak from last week is really starting to sink into EM currencies today. Look at $IDR down -1.25%, trading around 28.4, and even $MXNJPY is off -0.66% at 9.239. It's not a full-blown panic, but the direction is pretty clear. I'm not seeing the usual safe-haven scramble into USD versus all EM, with $USDTHB actually only up marginally at 33.57. That suggests it's more about specific vulnerabilities and the perception of narrowing interest rate differentials rather than a broad risk-off.

My take is the market's still trying to price in what a 'higher for longer' Fed really means for capital flows into EM. Some of these countries are better positioned than others, but everyone feels the squeeze eventually. I'm keeping a close eye on those that rely heavily on foreign capital for funding their current accounts. If this Fed rhetoric holds, we could see some more significant moves in the coming weeks. Not jumping in yet, but definitely tightening up the watchlist for potential shorts on the weaker links.

2 comments · 1 points

2 Comments

MTu/marija_toth·4d

Good points on the varied EM reaction. I'm wondering if some of that $USDTHB resilience is due to local factors or if it's just a lag before broader EM weakness catches up.

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NSu/nsuwannarat·4d

เป็นไปได้ว่าตลาดกำลังปรับตัวเข้ากับความเป็นจริงใหม่ของ Fed โดยดูจากความเคลื่อนไหวของค่าเงิน EM บางสกุล ผมยังคงเฝ้าระวังว่านี่เป็นแค่การแกว่งตัวระยะสั้น หรือเป็นสัญญาณของการเปลี่ยนแปลงที่ยั่งยืนกว่าในแนวโน้มของ EM FX โดยเฉพาะเมื่อดู $USDTHB ที่ยังไม่ขยับมากเท่าไรนัก

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